October 12, 2024 | The Jerusalem Post
Tehran’s hidden message: Why an Iranian official visited war-struck Beirut
Iran has a long-term plan and it includes trying to weaken Israel through long slow wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
October 12, 2024 | The Jerusalem Post
Tehran’s hidden message: Why an Iranian official visited war-struck Beirut
Iran has a long-term plan and it includes trying to weaken Israel through long slow wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf piloted a plane that flew to Lebanon on Saturday.
The trip is important for a variety of reasons. First of all it is symbolically important that the Iranian felt comfortable flying into Beirut despite the war and the recent deaths of several Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members over the last year. In addition, his decision to fly the plane himself on part of the trip showcased a kind of bravado and Iranian attempt to grab headlines in the region.
Qalibaf arrived in Beirut on Saturday morning and met with Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who is the head of Amal and has also spoken to US officials in the past, meaning he is a kind of key powerbroker in Lebanon now. He is a power broker because he is Shi’ite and can thus also speak on Hezbollah’s behalf when speaking to the West. When he speaks to Iran, he does so as a key component of Lebanon’s parliament. Lebanon does not have a president, which has meant that more spotlight falls on Berri and also Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
Iranian state media noted that “Qalibaf is the second Iranian official to visit Lebanon since Israel started its intense airstrikes on the Arab country late last month. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Lebanon on October 4 for talks with top officials there.” The same report notes that Berri is heading for Geneva “where he is scheduled to attend the 149th Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) taking place on October 13-17.”
Qalibaf said Iran is ready to aid Lebanon. “He said that he has conveyed the message of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei to the people of Lebanon,” Iran’s state media noted. He also toured areas that had been bombed in Beirut.
This is also symbolically important. It is all about showcasing Iran’s influence in Lebanon and that its officials can openly visit Beirut amid the war. Tehran is trying to show that it holds a winning hand in the confrontation with Israel.
Iran continues to back its proxies
It launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1 and has threatened Israel against responding. Iranian-backed groups attacked the Jewish state throughout Yom Kippur. A total of 320 projectiles crossed from Lebanon over the holy day, the IDF said. This shows that Iran and its allies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, groups in Iraq and Yemen were all willing to purposely threaten Israel during the holy day.
Iran believes it can withstand Israel’s blows to Hezbollah. Qalibaf’s trip is all about putting on this kind of brave face amid the airstrikes. The Lebanese-based terrorist group’s ability to continue to launch hundreds of rockets a day despite its losses shows that it has a very deep terrorist infrastructure that has apparently not been as damaged as some initially believed it was.
“I asked the people of this region what happened to them, and they referred to the bombing of this area by the Zionist regime, while they are all Lebanese and Muslim people who lived in this area,” Qalibaf said in Beirut. “He told reporters that he would meet Lebanese officials to convey a message from Iran’s Supreme Leader as well as officials and people that the Islamic Republic stands in solidarity with the Lebanese people, government, and resistance,” IRNA noted in Iran.
It is unclear if the visit by the Iranian will include any discussions of a ceasefire. It appears the US thinks that it might be able to achieve a ceasefire and even reduce Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon’s politics.
The Iranian trip and meetings with Berri indicate that this is unlikely, however. US envoys may meet with Berri and others in Lebanon, but it is clear that the Iranians continue to have the upper hand politically in Israel’s northern neighbor. Whether they also have the upper hand militarily remains to be seen. Iran has a long-term plan that includes trying to weaken Israel through long, slow wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.