Beijing Is Listening as Americans Threaten Taiwan

We appreciate Elbridge Colby’s letter “The U.S. and Taiwan Must Change Course” (Sept. 3) responding to our op-ed “Can Taiwan Count on the U.S. if Trump Wins?” (Aug. 29). Mr. Colby, whom we respect as a leading voice on U.S. defense policy in the Pacific, reiterates that the U.S. has a national security interest in defending Taiwan, that Taipei should spend more on defense, and that we must take urgent steps to bolster deterrence against China.

As we clearly write in our op-ed, we agree. Our fundamental disagreement with Mr. Colby is whether it is wise for Americans to threaten that the U.S. won’t defend Taiwan if it doesn’t spend more on defense. We argue that threatening to abandon Taiwan undermines U.S. deterrence and increases the chance of Chinese aggression against the island, which could lead to a catastrophic war.

Mr. Colby doesn’t address that central premise of our op-ed in his letter. His recent comments were obviously aimed at policy makers in Taipei to push them to spend more on defense and take other steps. That’s an important audience. But Mr. Colby neglects the dangerous effect of his words on another audience: Beijing.

Deterrence is based on the perception of political will to use military capabilities. That’s why public comments by former, and likely future, officials such as Mr. Colby suggesting that the U.S. wouldn’t defend Taiwan are so misguided. Such words affect adversaries’ calculus of U.S. political will. Previous comments by Mr. Colby suggesting the U.S. use sanctions against Taiwan don’t help either.

We agree with Mr. Colby on much. Unfortunately, his recent public suggestions that the U.S. might not come to Taiwan’s defense makes the nightmare scenario, which he has worked hard to prevent, more likely.

Rear Adm. (Ret.) Mark Montgomery is a senior director at the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on X @MarkCMontgomery. Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military Political Power (CMPP) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow Bradley on X @Brad_L_Bowman.