Will Jordan’s new electoral law bring real change?

Jordanians will head to the polls on September 10 to elect all 138 members of their lower house of parliament. Historically, most Jordanian lawmakers have been independents representing narrow concerns, a fact that has often hindered coordinated action and the advancement of broader interests. But this time around, to strengthen the country’s political parties and engage voters more effectively, the government has reserved forty-one out of the 138 seats for candidates running on party lists. Yet, the resulting changes are likely only cosmetic since Jordanian parties are not winning voters’ confidence for various reasons, including on the pivotal issue of unemployment.

Jordan has been on a path toward political reform since 2021, following King Abdullah II’s decision to form a committee that would “propose changes aimed at enhancing public participation, developing political life, and broadening participation.” In 2022, the parliament approved twenty-six of the committee’s thirty proposed constitutional amendments, including the allocation of forty-one parliamentary seats for political parties. The new law specifically reserves nine seats for Christians, three seats for Chechens and Circassians, and eighteen seats for women. There is also a plan to gradually increase the allocation from forty-one parliamentary seats to ninety over the next twelve years, paving the way for the formation of a parliamentary government with a popular mandate.

Nevertheless, some parties appear to be building significant support across all twelve of Jordan’s governorates, with Eradah and the National Charter leading the way. Both of these parties, despite being established only recently—with Eradah forming in 2023 and the National Charter in 2022—have grown quickly, with each party having more than 16,000 members (28 percent of all those registered with parties in Jordan). The parties’ leaders are former cabinet members: Nidal Bataineh, Jordan’s former labor minister, heads Eradah, while Mohammad al-Momani, the former minister of state for media affairs, leads the National Charter. This close connection to the political establishment suggests that the new electoral law may do little to change the existing political dynamics.

Smaller parties face considerable challenges, especially regarding fundraising. A new contribution system, approved in March 2023, ties funding to electoral participation and performance. The government provides each party only minimal support: $7,000 every four years to cover conference expenses with a maximum additional provision of $170,000 tied to participation—namely whether the party surpasses a certain threshold percentage in electoral performance. This system is insufficient for smaller parties with less popular support that could only rely on the government’s aid. Larger parties like Eradah and the National Charter use the contributions from their large support base to satisfy their financial needs.

Parties must also contend with voters’ lack of faith in their efforts. Only 15 percent of the population said they trust political parties, according to a poll conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan. This challenge is compounded by the fact that the new system doesn’t address the perpetual issue of low voter turnout, particularly in urban areas. In 2020, there was only a 12 percent turnout in Amman, which has about 2.2 million residents. While polls suggest that voter participation may rise to about 18 percent in Amman in the upcoming election, that is hardly a sign of public enthusiasm.

If parties can create a system of volunteerism and collective action that spurs political engagement, they may overcome this distrust and increase voter turnout, but it will take time. Additionally, Jordanians focused on the economy and high unemployment may consider parliamentary politics a distraction.

Some parties say that unfair treatment of their media platforms limits their ability to communicate with the public. For example, citing a lack of proper licensing, government authorities shut down the offices of Al-Yarmouk TV, a channel affiliated with the Islamic Action Front, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. However, the channel’s chief executive, Khider al-Mashayekh, argued that “the issue is not a legal one; it is primarily political.” The government is concerned that a more open electoral system could potentially benefit Islamists, whose goals may prioritize significant change over reform.

A successful party system must also contend with Jordanians’ loyalty to their tribes, a cornerstone of the country’s political and social system. Although some officials have claimed that Jordan’s new electoral laws encourage voters to choose political parties over tribal affiliations, evidence suggests otherwise. In a poll conducted by NAMAA, a civil society group in Jordan, 50.5 percent of Jordanians stated they would not vote for a political party in the upcoming elections. Another poll by the University of Jordan showed that 65 percent of Jordanians trust their tribe more than political parties, as they embody familial ties and social traditions just as much as a network of support, making it hard for political parties to fill that role. Some parties, such as the Islamic Action Front, have traditionally relied on Jordanians of Palestinian descent. However, they have also strategically included members of prominent tribes in their ranks to expand their support base.

The most significant test for the parties will be their ability to promote new ideas and policies to address Jordan’s deteriorating economic situation. Jordan’s overall unemployment rate is 21.4 percent, and youth unemployment is 40.8 percent. A study by the Economic and Social Council, which advises the Jordanian government on economic and social policies, indicates that only seven of the thirty-one parties in this election have specific economic plans or programs. Campaigns often focus on promoting candidates’ names and images rather than substantive platforms. Council head Mousa Shtewi noted that while two-thirds of parties eventually announced general programs during the campaign, many added economic and social issues to their manifestos only later.

Jordan’s previous experiments with more open elections failed because the monarchy eventually concluded that the risk of losing control outweighed the value of bolstering the government’s legitimacy. The results of the September 10 elections and the skill of the country’s new parliamentarians will influence whether the experiment is more successful this time around.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing on the Levant.