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May 6, 2008
U.S. Should Help North Koreans Flee
'We look forward to the moment when we can celebrate the blessings of liberty with the North Korean people," President Bush said in a statement released last week....
May 6, 2008
Food vs. Fuel: A Global Myth
In recent weeks, a flood of reports and statements has claimed that the world's biofuel programs—in particular the U.S. corn ethanol effort—is starving poor people around the globe...
May 1, 2008
Pirates of Somalia: The Curse of the Failed State
On April 4, MY Le Ponant, an 850-ton three-masted luxury sailing yacht owned by CMA CGM S.A., a French firm headed by Lebanese-born businessman Jacques Saadé that is the third-largest container shipping company in the world, was en route from the Seychelles to the Mediterranean when it was seized in international waters in the Gulf of Aden by Somali pirates. A week later, after the owners had paid a ransom reported to be around $2 million, Le Ponant docked at the port of Eyl in the semi-autonomous northeastern region of Puntland and the 30 crew members – twenty-two Frenchmen, six Filipinos, a Cameroonian, and a Ukrainian – were released. French forces, however, tracked the attackers to the nearby fishing village of Jariban where helicopter-borne commandos disabled the escape vehicle with sniper fire and seized six of what is thought to have been an original band of twelve fugitives. The six prisoners were flown to Paris where they were arraigned before a French court on charges of theft, hijacking, and hostage-taking.
April 30, 2008
Feds Must Resist Push to Prosecute Cops who Killed Sean Bell
It's a recurring pattern, as familiar as Rodney King asking whether we can't all just get along. Police respond to a disturbance, the kind that's inevitable in a big, bustling city's...
April 28, 2008
Switzerland Siding with Iran?
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter went to Damascus last week to meet with Hamas' Khaled Meshaal, a man accused of terrorism by the United States, Israel and the European Union. Carter's initi...
April 24, 2008
Thinking the Unthinkable
The next time Islamist terrorists attack us it could be with a nuclear weapon. By saying that, am I “fear mongering”? If so, I’m in good company. Graham Allison is a Harvard professor who served with distinction in the Defense Department under both Reagan and Clinton. He wrote a book in 2004 arguing that “on the current course, nuclear terrorism is inevitable.” There has been no change of course since – on the contrary. Ashton B. Carter, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at Harvard, said recently that the threat of nuclear terrorism has been increasing due to Iranian and North Korean proliferation and the failure to secure Russia's nuclear arsenal following the Cold War. The probability of a nuclear attack on an American city, he believes, is now “almost surely larger than it was five years ago.” Gary Anthony Ackerman, Research Director of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, also recently told Congress that “the prospect of terrorists detonating a nuclear device on American soil sometime within the next quarter-century is real and growing.” And Cham D. Dallas, who directs the Institute for Health Management and Mass Destruction Defense at the University of Georgia, says flatly: “It’s inevitable.” Testifying before a Senate hearing this month, he added: “I think it's wistful to think that it won't happen by 20 years." Should a 10-kiloton nuclear bomb explode near the White House, Dallas estimates that 100,000 people would be killed. A radioactive plume would lethally contaminate thousands more. In a densely populated city such as New York or Chicago, a similar blast would result in a death toll perhaps eight times that high.
April 24, 2008
Pensando lo impensable
La próxima vez que los terroristas islamistas nos ataquen, podría ser con un arma nuclear. Al decir esto, ¿estoy siendo un “alarmista”? Si es así, estoy en buena compañía. Graham Allison es un profesor de Harvard que sirvió distinguidamente en el Departamento de Defensa durante las presidencias de Reagan y Clinton. Él escribió un libro en 2004 arguyendo que “por el camino que vamos, el terrorismo nuclear es inevitable”.
April 24, 2008
Enabling Mugabe to Cling On
Last Friday was the twenty-eighth anniversary of Zimbabwe's independence, although the country's long-suffering people of the country might be forgiven for not exactly marking the occasion with dances in the streets. Sure, some 15,000 people were bussed to Gwanzura Stadium in the suburb of Highfield, southwest of Harare, to stomp their feet and chant "Ndibaba Vanogona" (Shona for "he is an able father") as President Robert Mugabe arrived to treat them to an hour-long harangue, to which the listeners dutifully responded with cries of "Down with the British!" But overall the mood seemed to have been succinctly captured by Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), who, from the safety of his refuge abroad, noted that it was "the saddest Independence Day since our liberation from colonial rule." And while the responsibility for this tragedy reposes primarily with the Mugabe regime, some of the blame must be shared by its enablers abroad.
April 23, 2008
Dems Unserious on Surveillance
It’s now been more than two months since the Pelosi Democrats — following their pied pipers at MoveOn.org and the ACLU, as well as their party’s two presidential contenders &...
April 22, 2008
Al-Qaeda Sahara Network Spurs U.S. to Train Chad, Mali Forces
Analyzing the veritable "surge" last summer in attacks launched by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), I suggested in this column space that both the rhetoric of the group and the threat it a...
April 22, 2008
Change that Sees No Evil
Who is El Sayyid Nosair? Well, I know him. I spent an awful lot of time around him. I know all about his background. So what if, upon being asked tha...
April 21, 2008
Carrying a Torch for China
London It was my four-year-old son's first demonstration. But he was getting cold, the police were manhandling the Tibetans to the point that there might be a stampede, and I wasn't sure if the bus that had just rushed by at such an unseemly speed actually carried the stupid torch, so we headed for the tube and home. My son wanted to know why people kept saying "China, stop the kitty."
April 20, 2008
Europe Facing Radicalization Over the Web
A few months ago Bernard Squarcini the head of the DST (Direction de la Surveillance du Territoire), the French equivalent of the FBI, told the French daily Libération regarding Islamic radicalization: "An ideological transformation can be done in three months on the Web. An individual can at night auto-radicalize himself via the Web and get in touch with leaders of terrorist organizations." This assessment shows how dire the situation is in Europe when it comes to al-Qaida's use of the Web.
April 17, 2008
La confusión de Carter
Seamos justos con Jimmy Carter. Supongamos que no está entregándose al pavoneo egoísta, que no abriga una parcialidad profundamente arraigada contra Israel y que no está influenciado por los millones de dólares que los islamistas han donado a su Carter Center. Supongamos que su diplomacia independiente en busca de la evasiva paz de Oriente Medio es sincera.
April 17, 2008
Carter’s Confusion
Former US president Jimmy Carter in Ramallah. Let’s be fair to Jimmy Carter. Let’s suppose he isn’t indulging in egotistical grandstanding, that he doesn’t harbor a deep-seated bias against Israel, and that he’s not been influenced by the millions of dollars Islamists have provided to his Carter Center. Let’s suppose his freelance diplomacy is sincerely in pursuit of the elusive path to peace in the Middle East.
April 17, 2008
Botswana’s Success Sparkles amid African Gloom
While the world has been watching the pathetic spectacle being played out in Harare, Zimbabwe, as Robert Mugabe clings desperately to the levers of power he has held for nearly three decades (see my report last week), not enough attention has been paid to the truly remarkable transition taking place contemporaneously just 500 miles to the west in Gaborone, Botswana. There, on March 31st, President Festus Gontebanye Mogae stepped down and was succeeded by his vice president, Seretse Khama Ian Khama (generally known as Ian Khama).
April 15, 2008
Will Yousaf Raza Gilani change Pakistan?
Perhaps the most notable aspect of Yousaf Raza Gilani's conduct upon his ascension as Pakistan's new prime minister has been his lack of apparent vitriol toward President Pervez Musharraf.
April 12, 2008
Foreign Policy Shouldn’t be Based on U.S.-centric Coverage
"Does U.S. media coverage of world events provide a sound basis for foreign policy decision making?"
March 20, 2008
Bin Laden’s Threat Uncovers Jihadist Message for Europe
In an audiotape posted on the Internet, Osama Bin Laden threatened Europe with punishment because of its "negligence in spite of the opportunity presented to take the necessary measures" to...
March 20, 2008
The Long War
Five years ago this month, American troops liberated Iraq from Saddam Hussein. Then came the hard part.
March 18, 2008
Israel and the War of Ideas
Israel's 60-year war for survival has been marked by numerous victories on the battlefield. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) is lauded as one of the premier military forces in modern history. But Israel has often lost on another front, sometimes without much of a fight: the battlefield of the mind, where ideas, words, and images are the weapons of choice. Israel's enemies are keenly aware of how the victories and defeats in one theater can affect the outcomes in the other. As Hizbullah commander Nabil Qaouk noted in 2000, "The use of media as a weapon had an effect parallel to a battle."
March 13, 2008
Las dos Américas
Al-Qaeda y otros grupos islamistas militantes viven en un mundo de tinieblas donde hacen planes para asesinarnos a Ud. y a mí. Si esperamos que nuestros profesionales de inteligencia eviten que los terroristas logren su cometido, debemos darles las herramientas necesarias para conseguir que hagan su trabajo.
March 13, 2008
Two Americas
Al-Qaeda and other militant Islamist groups live in a shadow world where they plot to kill you and me. If we expect our intelligence professionals to prevent them from succeeding, we must give them the tools required to get the job done.
March 13, 2008
Prosaic Justice for Spitzer
The young prosecutor rubbed his hands with glee. For months on end, the high-profile defense lawyer had been a thorn in his side. He’d violated every rule in th...
March 12, 2008
Inverse False Alarms
THE FBI'S NATIONAL SPOKESMAN was already prepared to dismiss a connection to terrorism the day after ricin was found in a Las Vegas hotel room. Special Agent Richard Kolko told the...
March 10, 2008
Being a Christian in the Maghreb
The plight of Christian communities in the Arab world has been quite well documented: from Saudi Arabia to Egypt to Iraq. But the Maghreb is now also turning into a troublesome spot for Christians. Under the veil of a wave of alleged "proselytizing" that has converted tens of thousands of Muslims into Christians, the authorities have been pressured to become tougher on Christian residents.
March 10, 2008
Lawfare’s Soft Targets
The failure of the Bush administration to reverse its predecessors’ drastic shrinkage of our armed services is notorious. Yet, because our fighters are the greatest in human history, the most pernicious fall-out of our parsimony remains unnoticed. The peerless but thinly stretched U.S. military, it turns out, has an Achilles’ heel: it cannot combat lawfare waged against the private partners on whom it is ever more dependent.
March 6, 2008
Taliban Defeat in North-West Frontier?
To some commentators, the results of Pakistan's Feb. 18 elections in its restive North-West Frontier Province appear to be a significant strategic victory for the United States.
March 6, 2008
Helping Taiwan Help Itself
On Monday, the Pentagon released the 2008 edition of its legislatively mandated Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People's Republic of China.
March 6, 2008
Why AFRICOM is Critical for Our Security Interests
This week I thought it useful to update readers on developments with some of the stories that have been previously reported in this column.
March 6, 2008
Se debería castigar a las empresas de telecomunicaciones por ayudar a que nos protejamos de los terr
¿Está Ud. indignado? Debería estarlo. Según Peter Eliasberg, abogado de la Unión Americana de Libertades Civiles (ACLU) después de los atentados del 11 de septiembre de 2001, “todos en el país” podríamos haber sufrido el “rastreo” de nuestras llamadas telefónicas para chequear la existencia de conexiones terroristas; y si eso ha sucedido, mucha gente estará indignada” afirmó al Washington Post.
March 6, 2008
Listen Up: Should the Telecoms be Punished for Helping Protect You from Terrorists?
Are you outraged? You’re supposed to be. According to Peter Eliasberg, a lawyer for the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11/01 attacks, “everybody in the country” may have had their phone calls “combed through” for terrorist connections and, if that happened, he told the Washington Post, “lots of people will be outraged.” Would you be among them? Or would you, like me, be relieved to know that on at least this occasion, the government did its job?
March 4, 2008
The Case for Telecom Immunity
It’s been nearly three weeks since House Democrats endangered our national security by effectively rescinding the law that permitted the intelligence community to conduct aggressive surveillance...
February 28, 2008
Will divisions undermine Somali rebellion?
By mid-2007, when the fighting in Somalia was routinely described as an "Iraq-style insurgency," victory seemed likely for the extremist Islamic Courts Union. But rifts within the insurgency that were simmering last year may now have reached a boiling point, providing a strategic opportunity for Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) and its Ethiopian allies.
February 27, 2008
Al Qaeda’s Resurgence
Four years ago, his words would have represented an almost unquestioned consensus view. In late January, the State Department's counterterrorism coordinator, Dell Dailey, described al Qaeda's top leadership as isolated, saying that they have "much, much less central authority and much, much less capability to reach out."
January 31, 2008
Economía energética: Una alternativa a los paquetes de estímulo económico de siempre
Se ha convertido en un ritual: La economía crece lentamente y los políticos se dan prisa en “hacer algo” al respecto. Y lo que hacen casi nunca tiene un impacto económico beneficioso, como cualquier acreditado economista podría decirle.
January 31, 2008
Khartoum’s Partners in Beijing
Last week, some 200 baton-wielding policemen prevented Mia Farrow and members "Dream for Darfur" group from holding a rally near the site of Cambodia's "killing fields" to urge the People's Republic of China (PRC) to use its influence on the Sudanese regime to end the conflict in the African country's Darfur region that no less a figure than former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan characterized as "the world's worst humanitarian crisis." An aide Cambodian Premier Hun Sen explained that the Hollywood actress was engaged in a "stunt to smear China" since her group, which as part of its international campaign has held similar events in Chad, Rwanda, Armenia, Germany and Bosnia, tried to light an Olympic-style torch (Beijing is hosting this year's Summer Olympics). Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Jiang Yu agreed, telling the audience at a routine January 24 press conference that the actress's action was "of apparent political intention and purpose to link the Darfur with the Olympics," a tactic which she said "violates the Olympic spirit and principle, and will never succeed."
January 31, 2008
The End of the Waterboarding Controversy?
The waterboarding controversy should end with a whimper. It probably won’t, but it should. Attorney General Michael Mukasey has studied U.S. interrogation methods, as he committ...
January 30, 2008
Energetic Economics: An Alternative to the Usual Stimulus Packages
It’s become a ritual: The economy grows sluggish and politicians rush to “do something” about it. What they do almost never has a beneficial economic impact, as any reputable economist will tell you.
January 30, 2008
Shattered Hopes
In the midst of an eight-day trip through Europe designed to assuage fears that his country is sliding toward chaos, Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has reaffirmed that parliamentary elections will be held on February 18. Though the last year has certainly shown us that events in Pakistan are always subject to change, the election date should be considered about as stable as anything in Pakistan's political scene. With less than a month before these elections, it is a good time to assess the influence that Benazir Bhutto's assassination will have.
January 29, 2008
State of the SOTU
Last night’s State of the Union struck me as less the speech of a lame duck than the speech of a candidate. That’s not to say it was a great speech. Candidates’ speeches seldom are. But...
January 25, 2008
Flex-fuel Cars Can Break OPEC
Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez recently joined Iranian president Mahmoud Amadinejad in threatening to raise oil prices to $200 per barrel. The threat should be taken quite seriously. With no practical transportation fuel alternative to petroleum available to the world market, the OPEC oil cartel has already been successful in raising prices an order of magnitude since 1999, with a 50 percent increase effected in 2007 alone.
January 25, 2008
Questions for the Pentagon: Who is Hesham Islam?
In the sorry tradition of shooting the messenger, the Pentagon is cashiering its top expert on Islamist doctrine, Stephen Coughlin. Some members of Congress are now contem...
January 24, 2008
The New True Believers: What we should have learned about fanatical mass movements
Adolf Hitler Adolf Hitler was evil and perhaps a madman. But throughout history, there have been many evil madmen in many corners of the Earth. Few have attracted millions of passionate followers; fewer still have conquered Europe and committed genocide. So what made Hitler different and – for a time – effective?
January 11, 2008
Hezbollah’s Billion Petrodollars
A few weeks ago, articles published around the world reported that Hezbollah is undergoing two major changes. Both portend greater violence from the Iranian-sponsored global terrorist network. The first change is a shift in leadership responsibilities. A report published initially in the Saudi owned Sharq al Awsat said the office of Ayatollah Khomenei appointed deputy secretary general Sheikh Naim Qassim as the new supreme commander of Hezbollah forces and the personal representative of the Ayatollah in Lebanon. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, according to this report remains as secretary general of the organization. Sources said this change in control and command is because of "differences in opinions" between Narsrallah and Qassim.
January 10, 2008
Wishful Thinking: A lethal habit when it comes to Islamist terrorists
Osama bin Laden probably does not get home delivery of Parade but more than 30 million Americans do. And on the magazine’s cover last Sunday was the not-quite-smiling face of Benazir Bhutto, along with this confident quote: “I am what the terrorists most fear.” By the time Bhutto’s image and words reached America’s breakfast tables, she was, of course, dead. The January 6 issue of the magazine had gone to press before Bhutto was assassinated on Dec. 27 during a campaign stop in northern Pakistan.
January 3, 2008
Soft foreign policy hurts the U.S.
Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice If American diplomacy were delivering on its promises, we'd be heading into boom times for peace and security. Instead, the new year begins with Washington foreign policy increasingly cocooned in a cloud of "soft power," trying to deflect threats through the wiles of diplomacy, the art of the deal. Welcome to the world of wishful thinking.
October 21, 2007
While Pakistan Burns
If there were any doubt about the reach of militants in Pakistan, last week's events should have put them to rest. The ostentatious procession celebrating the return home of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto was tragically cut short by twin bombs that killed over 130 and wounded several hundred more on Thursday night. The attackers almost succeeded in killing Bhutto as well. The blast shattered the windows in her vehicle and set a police escort car ablaze. The sophistication of the attack was apparent from the outset, and the bombs may have been accompanied by sniper fire.
October 18, 2007
Al Qaeda in Iraq on the Run
Al Qaeda is on the horns of a dilemma. Last month, some 30 of its senior leaders in Iraq were killed or captured. Now, Osama bin Laden faces a tough decision: Send reinforcements to Iraq in an attempt to regain the initiative? That risks losing those combatants, too -- and that could seriously diminish his global organization. But the alternative is equally unappealing: accept defeat in Iraq, the battlefield bin Laden has called central to the struggle al Qaeda is waging against America and its allies.
October 4, 2007
COIN Is Not Small Change
General David Petraeus helped write COIN. It’s the Pentagon’s job to prepare for wars of the future. But somewhere between Vietnam and Iraq, military planners confused “future” with “futuristic.” They convinced themselves that combat in the 21st Century would resemble computer games. Satellites would provide intelligence. “Smart bombs” would do much of the killing. The enemy, overcome by “shock and awe,” would lose his will to fight.
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