‘When Your Friends Have Bad Relations’: Azerbaijan Mediates Syria Deconfliction Talks Between Israel and Turkey

Latest Developments

Agreed to Continue Discussions: Seeking to avoid “undesirable incidents,” Israel and Turkey held the first round of discussions in Azerbaijan on April 9 to create deconfliction mechanisms as the two adversaries conduct military operations in Syria. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in a statement that National Security Council Director Tzachi Hanegbi led a delegation of Defense Ministry and security services officials to meet with a parallel Turkish delegation where the participants “agreed to continue on the path of dialogue in order to maintain regional stability.” The meeting was hosted by Azerbaijan, a strategic ally of Turkey that has long had a warm diplomatic relationship with the Jewish state.
Turkey Expands Influence in Syria: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev explained his country’s role by saying, “It is always bad when your friends have bad relations. It is bad for them. It is bad for us and bad for the world.” Despite “a high level of mistrust, still, there can be found the grounds for normalization and the areas of mutual interest,” he added. After the toppling of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by the Turkey-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS), Turkey has sought to fill the void left by Russia and Iran, Assad’s allies, by expanding its military presence in the neighboring state.
Israel Bombs Bases Eyed by Turkey: Israel has expressed concerns over Turkey’s involvement in Syria, fearing that the new Syrian government, led by interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa — a former al-Qaeda and HTS commander — could allow anti-Israel Islamist terrorist groups to establish themselves in the country’s south. On April 3, Israeli warplanes targeted the T4 airfield, a former Assad-era base, which was reportedly set to become a Turkish drone base in the near future. Israel’s Kan news agency reported that Turkey did not allow Israel’s delegation to fly over its airspace on their way to talks in Azerbaijan, forcing the Israelis to take a detour over the Black Sea.

FDD Expert Response

“Turkey is starting to realize that its neo-Ottoman expansionist policies to dominate the Middle East, by projecting military power from within Syria, is no longer going to be tolerated. Israel’s recent strikes against Syrian airbases were a military strategy to deny Turkish fighter jets a base in Syria home to threaten the Israeli homeland. While this was a clear warning to Ankara, a direct meeting between representatives of the Israeli and Turkish governments is a wise follow-up that will hopefully underline Israel’s determination to stand firm against any attempt by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cross Jerusalem’s red lines.” — Sinan Ciddi, Non-Resident Senior Fellow

“Deconfliction talks between Turkey and Israel are unlikely to yield a functional arrangement in Syria. Israel has endured Russian bases like T4 being used by Iran to launch drone and missile attacks against Israel. Israel will not allow Turkey to occupy those locations while Erdogan continues to publicly call for the destruction of Israel. Israeli security requires the freedom of movement to attack Iranian weapon shipments transiting Syria to resupply Hezbollah in Lebanon. Turkey desires control over Syrian airspace and to challenge IDF overflights. The two sides are diametrically opposed on security posture in Syria.” — Tyler Stapleton, Director of Congressional Relations, FDD Action

“While Turkey is determined to entrench its military presence in Syria, Israel won’t tolerate any threats on its border. These goals collide. Finding common ground is tough, but open conflict must be avoided — chaos in Syria will only give malign actors like Iran a way back in.” — Ahmad Sharawi, Research Analyst

“Good relations with Israel and Turkey are valuable to Azerbaijan’s prosperity since Turks and Azerbaijanis consider themselves brothers, and Israel has benefitted Azerbaijan’s economic and geopolitical goals. Yet, Erdogan’s aggression towards Israel — possibly intended for domestic consumption but rooted in his deep-seated antisemitism — threatens to disrupt regional stability. Azerbaijan, being trusted by both Israel and Turkey, knows it can play a constructive role as a mediator in this case.” — Dmitriy Shapiro, Research Analyst and Editor