Election of Pro-Iran Hardliner as Hamas Leader Along With Refusal To Disarm Raises Specter of New Gaza War

The election of Khalil al-Hayya as the head of Hamas’s political bureau is the clearest signal yet that the Iran-backed terror group will persist with its refusal to disarm — a stance that may well lead to the collapse of the uneasy ceasefire in Gaza announced last October.

Al-Hayya is a stalwart ally of Iran. He was close with former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, atrocities in Israel who was eliminated by the IDF one year later. According to Hamas, a clear majority of the organization’s Shura Council voted for al-Hayya over Khaled Mashal, his Qatar-based rival, underlining that the group’s Gaza leadership is driving its agenda rather than those leaders based abroad. His victory means he will now take the reins from the five-member council that has controlled Hamas since Sinwar’s death.

Moreover, Hamas is not simply ignoring the disarmament required under President Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire but actively rearming as well. Israel is, in turn, escalating preemptive air strikes, advancing ground troops, and planning a potential resumption of the war.

Israel Escalates Strikes Against Key Terrorist Personnel

Israel has been stepping up air strikes against prominent Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists in the Gaza Strip to an almost daily rate.

Those eliminated include key figures involved with the October 7 atrocities and Hamas’s efforts to reconstitute its terrorist capabilities in the approximately 30 percent of the Gazan territory is still controls. These figures include Mohammad Marwan Salem, a senior police commander and the head of the Hamas brigade in Jabalia, and Anas Mahmoud Ahmed Hamdan, a Hamas commander who held Israeli hostages in captivity.

According to recent Israeli media reports, Hamas has increased  the recruitment of new terrorists, including teenagers. It is rebuilding its improvised arsenal, including deadly IEDs, while digging new tunnels and underground bunkers.

Hamas’s rearmament has also stymied initiatives to begin reconstruction in areas of Gaza under Israeli control. Nikolay Mladenov, the top diplomat serving with the Board of Peace, the body created by Trump to steer postwar Gaza, has explained that potential investors are liable to be unnerved by the proximity of defiant and dangerous Palestinian terrorists.

Humanitarian Zone for Civilians in Gaza Urgently Needed

A stop-gap proposal to set up a secure humanitarian zone to which Palestinian civilians could escape from Hamas rule is proceeding slowly. Israel is concerned that this would effectively normalize the status quo, with the terrorist group remaining armed and in charge on its side of the ceasefire line.

Yet what is needed is a credible plan for evacuating some two million Palestinian civilians who are now crammed within the shrinking Hamas fiefdom. The proposed humanitarian zone should be implemented without delay, so that the facilities are in place once the IDF embarks on its campaign to finally crush Hamas.

Until then, there’s little reason for Israel to amplify what is effectively a slow-rolling resumption of the war. Both sides are still within the nominal confines of the ceasefire, a rubric that does much to discourage the habitually intensive and distorted media focus on Gaza. There is no good reason to reignite this propagandistic scrutiny by formally declaring a new war.

Mark Dubowitz is the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Mark and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. Follow Mark on X @mdubowitz. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.