Is a ‘New Middle East’ Still Possible?

Excerpt

The one constant about the Middle East is that it is always changing. As one of the world’s most active regions in terms of conflict and diplomatic concerns, the region is of particular interest to external powers, who believe that different policies can result in long-term change. This creates the illusion that another war or the toppling of another regime will fundamentally transform the region. The reality is that while there is change, the fundamental transformation eludes policymakers.

This is particularly true regarding the Iran War. Hopes for a quick, decisive conflict were dashed when the regime did not collapse, following US and Israeli decapitation strikes. Instead, the Islamic Republic appears intent on clinging to its ideology. Tehran has not chosen a pragmatic way to get out of the recent conflict with the United States and Israel. It has not chosen the path Venezuela appeared to take in ditching Nicolas Maduro and agreeing to some small policy shifts that paved the way for relative peace.

For those who study the Iranian regime, its stubbornness was no surprise. It is, after all, a deeply ideological and theocratic regime. These states are likely less prone to pragmatic shifts. Nevertheless, the current conflict with Iran will lead to fundamental changes in the region.

Israel is one country whose leadership has promised fundamental change. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 7 that “we brought all of our hostages home, struck the centers of terrorism in Judea and Samaria, climbed to the peak of Mount Hermon, and created buffer zones in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. As I promised you two days after October 7, we are changing the face of the Middle East.”

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future(Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.