The Iran War’s Five Lessons for Europe

Excerpt

A universal lesson of military strategy is never to get caught preparing for the last war. It is, however, possible to learn a great deal from it. European NATO has had a front-row seat to the Ukraine and Iran wars, two conflicts that combine the old and new aspects of the modern battlefield. America’s allies should take note. Applying lessons from these conflicts will be the best way to build up their forces and prevent an unwanted crisis with their most dangerous neighbor, Russia. Here’s how.

1. Bombs win battles. Allies win wars. The United States was significantly more effective in Operation Epic Fury thanks to Israel’s “near-peer” capabilities and exceptional interoperability with US forces. As Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth noted, we often settle for “willing but not capable” allies. Instead, Israel has demonstrated the value of going to war with a friend that can hit just as hard as the United States, is properly equipped with well-integrated systems and munitions, and has the willingness to fight. It is a model that European capitals must apply right now.

2. You go to war with the inventory you have, and Europe is shorthanded. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) spent years building the stockpiles it would need to defend its airspace against the bane of modern combat: drone and missile warfare. The results were impressive. The UAE intercepted 507 ballistic missiles, 24 cruise missiles, and 2,191 drones throughout the Iran War. The lesson here: high-end interceptors like Patriot and THAAD are needed to stop missiles, but so too are deep inventories of low-cost anti-drone systems.

Similarly, in Ukraine, the paucity of basic munitions at the start of the conflict, such as artillery rounds, both in Ukraine and more broadly across Europe and America, put local Ukrainian defenses at risk. At both the high-end and the low-end, Europe’s armories are bare, and much of what existed four years ago has been selflessly passed to Ukraine in recent years, but with no defense industrial base to speak of, replenishment has been slow.

Peter Doran is an adjunct senior fellow focused on Russia, Ukraine, and transatlantic relations at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mark Montgomery is a senior fellow and the senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.