February 19, 2026 | The National Interest
Breaking China’s Hold on Critical Minerals Requires More than Tariffs
Project Vault tackles investment risk directly, while FORGE will falter unless it becomes an enforceable trade regime.
February 19, 2026 | The National Interest
Breaking China’s Hold on Critical Minerals Requires More than Tariffs
Project Vault tackles investment risk directly, while FORGE will falter unless it becomes an enforceable trade regime.
Excerpt
The Trump administration has unveiled two new initiatives to break China’s grip on critical minerals. One has a high likelihood of success. The other needs a strong dose of enforcement to work.
At a ministerial meeting in Washington this month, the administration introduced the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE). The initiative seeks to establish price floors for critical minerals through coordinating tariffs with partner countries, preventing China from undercutting competitors through subsidies and dumping. Vice President JD Vance described it as a way to stabilize markets and blunt Beijing’s ability to weaponize price volatility.
A day earlier, the administration announced Project Vault, a public-private partnership that would secure advance purchase commitments from US manufactures for critical minerals at defined prices. The two initiatives reflect very different theories of change, but both initiatives start with a realistic diagnosis.
China’s Price Suppression Makes Critical Mineral Investment Unbankable
Mining and processing projects fail to materialize not because prices are too low today, but because investors cannot rely on what prices will be years from now. China’s ability to flood markets and suppress prices through unfair trading practices has made long-term investments unbankable. No financial institution will commit to a project when China can effectively make the output worthless overnight. As a result, China now supplies more than 50 percent of US demand for 21 critical mineral commodities—and controls processing capacity that makes diversification difficult even when minerals are sourced elsewhere.
Elaine Dezenski is the senior director and head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Follow Elaine on X @ElaineDezenski. Daniel Swift is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy, and a retired US Diplomat.