Phase Two of the Gaza Ceasefire Announced Despite Core Obstacles Still To Overcome

As the Trump administration presses ahead with the second phase of the ceasefire in Gaza, key challenges remain unresolved. U.S Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff announced the start of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire on January 14, and President Donald Trump made an official announcement the following day.

However, Hamas is refusing to disarm, and the U.S. has yet to receive firm offers of soldiers for the proposed International Stabilization Force (ISF) in the coastal enclave. These obstacles could well upset attempts to entrench the ceasefire before Hamas gathers sufficient momentum.

Board of Peace To Oversee Palestinian Government

According to Witkoff, “Phase Two establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), and begins … the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel.” He added that Washington “expects Hamas to comply fully with its obligations, including the immediate return of the final deceased hostage,” namely the remains of IDF officer Ran Gvili — an unfulfilled condition from the first phase.

The NCAG will comprise 15 Palestinian technocrats, tasked with managing Gaza. In accordance with his 20-point plan for Gaza, President Trump will lead a Board of Peace, which will oversee the NCAG and be represented on the ground by Nikolay Mladenov, a former UN envoy for Middle East peace.

The chairman of the NCAG will be Ali Shaath, former deputy minister for the Palestinian Authority. While the ISF is slated to operate under the Board of Peace to maintain the ceasefire, it is facing recruitment challenges. The U.S. has requested foreign troops for the ISF from over 70 countries, but has not announced which, if any, have formally volunteered soldiers. U.S. officials assess that Indonesia and Morocco will eventually provide the bulk of troops for the force.

Hamas is Down But Not Out

Trump later bolstered Witkoff’s announcement, asserting that the United States would reach a “comprehensive demilitarization agreement with Hamas, including the surrender of all weapons.” But that’s not what the terrorist organization has signaled.

Hamas has reportedly shown some willingness to decommission heavy weaponry, including rockets, but not its small arms. Point 13 of Trump’s plan stipulates that “all military, terror, and offensive infrastructure … will be destroyed and not be rebuilt,” and that “there will be a process of demilitarization in Gaza … which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning.”

Israel estimates that Hamas still retains some 60,000 rifles, mostly AK-47s, and 20,000 fighters within its ranks, despite heavy losses from two years of fighting in Gaza. One Israeli official asserted that Hamas’s refusal to disarm would force Israel to renew military operations in the enclave. Israel also assesses that drones launched from Egyptian territory are smuggling weapons to the terrorist organization.

Meanwhile, Hamas has reportedly been gathering intelligence on IDF troops stationed along the Yellow Line — which delineates the territory in Gaza held by the IDF from areas held by Hamas — in preparation for future fighting. IDF intelligence additionally suggests that Hamas has begun to appoint new commanders across Gaza.

The IDF has reported that Palestinian terrorist groups have violated the ceasefire at least 78 times since its implementation on October 10, 2025. On January 13, the IDF blamed Hamas for an attack on an Israeli tank in Rafah, which escalated into a firefight.

Board of Peace Needs Clear Deadlines for Hamas, Backed by IDF Strength

To overcome the stark contrast between the optimism of the United States and Hamas’s sullen refusal to fulfill its obligations, the Board of Peace should preemptively counter the terrorist organization’s stalling tactics.

The board should set a deadline for Hamas to commit to full disarmament. It should specify the weapons it must surrender, including the tens of thousands of small arms Hamas has vowed to retain. If Hamas does not commit to this process by the deadline, the U.S. should declare unequivocally that Hamas is responsible for the ceasefire’s collapse, and support, if Israel chooses, renewed IDF operations in Gaza.

Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Aaron and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aaron on X @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.