Chinese Government Mouthpiece Calls for Nuclear Attack on Japan

Guancha, a Chinese state-run media outlet, openly called for nuclear strikes on Japan after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told the Japanese legislature earlier this month that Tokyo might defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.

The threat underscores Beijing’s increasing willingness to publicly wield nuclear threats, this time in the face of Tokyo’s public support for Taipei. Those threats heighten the urgency of Washington clearly reaffirming its support for Japan.

China’s Threat Follows Japanese Defensive Moves

Echoing Chinese military propaganda, Guancha claimed that China has a historic responsibility to prevent the re-emergence of Japan’s World War II-era militarism, noting that 72 nuclear warheads would succeed in destroying Japan’s military and economic capabilities.

Guancha’s call also follows Japan’s recent decision to position a tranche of medium-range surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni Island, a remote Japanese territory situated 70 miles from Taiwan. In discussing the deployment, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi claimed it was solely for national defense, noting that Japan has consistently stationed the weapons in multiple locations around the country.

Beijing’s Nuclear Ambitions on Display

China’s threat underscores Beijing’s growing comfort in showcasing its burgeoning nuclear capabilities, while escalating pressure on both Taiwan and Japan.

In an ambitious nuclear modernization plan, Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping has dramatically ramped up China’s production of nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles. The U.S. Defense Department assesses Beijing’s stockpile of operational nuclear warheads could reach 1,000 by 2030, up from an estimated 600 weapons in 2024. In September, during the country’s annual military parade, the Chinese military concurrently showcased for the first time all three legs of China’s nuclear triad. While China has not officially modified its policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons, the Defense Department assessed last year that China will likely shift toward a more aggressive “launch on warning” posture over the next decade — meaning it will launch nuclear weapons as soon as early warning indicators detect a nuclear attack on China.

Beijing’s willingness to rattle its nuclear saber follows its increasingly aggressive action around Taiwan and Japan. The Chinese military launched major naval exercises encompassing both the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea in December 2024 and, more recently, tested its growing carrier fleet off the coast of Japan. In response, Japan has increased military spending while coordinating with the United States on establishing a joint in-theatre command headquarters to oversee the deployment of U.S. and Japanese Self Defense Forces during a possible Taiwan-related crisis.

Washington Should Reaffirm Its Commitment to Tokyo’s Security

China’s quasi-official threats are likely aimed at quashing the emergence of an international coalition ready to defend Taiwan against Chinese attack. While President Donald Trump is eager to conclude trade, agricultural, critical mineral, and other bilateral deals with China, and called Takaichi to provide assurance after China’s threat, the administration should also make clear to Beijing that Washington will not tolerate nuclear threats against Tokyo, a treaty ally.

In addition, the United States should accelerate its bilateral efforts to improve Tokyo’s preparedness to defend itself and Taiwan against Chinese aggression. Washington should prioritize the establishment of the planned U.S.-Japan command headquarters while working with Tokyo to counter a potential Chinese quarantine or blockade of Taiwan. In particular, the two nations should prepare contingencies to supply Taiwan with energy and pre-coordinate maritime corridors to protect commercial ships carrying critical goods to and from the island.

Jack Burnham is a senior research analyst in the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Andrea Stricker is a research fellow and deputy director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program. Follow them on X @JackBurnham802 and @StrickerNonpro. For more analysis from Jack, Andrea, and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.