Tehran’s Wake‑Up Call for Beijing

Excerpt

Israel’s air campaign against Iran did more than degrade Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities—it forced every regional actor to show its proverbial hand. Israel went all-in with an overwhelming airpower campaign, Gulf capitals folded into wary neutrality, and Washington showed that it still owns the table. Beijing, by contrast, merely dealt out press releases, its Middle East playbook reduced to rhetorical flourishes without ante.

With the dust now settled, the lesson most relevant to Beijing lies far from the Gulf. The short clash confirmed what Chinese strategists have long preached: In great-power contests, hard power decides outcomes.

Grant Rumley is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a former advisor for Middle East policy in the U.S. Defense Department, and the co-author, with Amir Tibon, of The Last Palestinian: The Rise and Reign of Mahmoud Abbas. Craig Singleton is a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former U.S. diplomat. X: @CraigMSingleton