‘Only Encourage the Aggressor’: Trump Administration Pauses Critical Weapons Shipments to Ukraine

The Trump administration announced July 1 that it would pause the delivery of needed munitions to Ukraine as the beleaguered democracy continues to defend itself against Russian aggression. The White House justified the decision by citing concerns regarding the size of U.S. stockpiles of certain air defense and precision munitions Ukraine needs, since the U.S. military may need them for a future conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

In response, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister said, “Any delay or slowing down in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities would only encourage the aggressor to continue war and terror.” The decision will also hurt Kyiv’s ability to defend itself from increased Russian attacks against Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure, and industry, resulting in more casualties.

Critical Munitions Impacted

Key munitions reportedly among the weapons shipments stopped by the administration include Patriot air defense interceptors and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets, which are fired by High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as other air defense and artillery munitions. The Patriot air and missile defense system has proven especially critical for Ukraine to defend against Russian ballistic missile attacks. Blocking Kyiv’s access to Patriot’s PAC-3 interceptors, along with other air defenses needed against drones and cruise missiles, will leave Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure more vulnerable to Russian barrages.

Likewise, GMLRS rockets have played an important role for Ukraine in denying Russian forces the ability to mass troops, vehicles, and equipment behind the lines to conduct large-scale assaults. While Ukraine’s prolific use of drones plays a similar role at shorter ranges, the loss of GMLRS and other artillery ammunition will likely be felt on the frontline, where Russia already holds an artillery advantage.

Russia Increases Attacks as U.S. Scales Back Support

The decision to withhold these munitions from Ukraine comes as Russia continues to increase its aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and pressure on the frontline. Russia launched what Ukraine called Moscow’s largest missile and drone barrage of the war, firing more than 470 drones and decoys combined with 60 missiles on June 29. The strike is part of a larger campaign of increased Russian air attacks against Ukraine.

In addition to unrelenting missile and drone attacks, Russia is also in the midst of prosecuting its summer offensive. Ukraine has successfully countered previous offensives, losing limited amounts of territory while inflicting massive casualties and equipment losses on Russia. But Ukrainian forces face significant manpower and resource challenges of their own as they struggle to contain Russian advances in key sectors of the front.

Projecting American Weakness Risks Incentivizing Further Aggression

While Ukrainians will be the primary victims of the Trump administration’s decision to withhold the means of self-defense from a democratic partner fighting for its survival against an authoritarian regime, the consequences will likely ripple far beyond Ukraine and risk undermining American deterrence from Europe to Asia. Sensing a lack of American resolve, Putin is unlikely to negotiate seriously, especially if he believes his forces will continue making gains on the battlefield. If the administration does not reverse its decision, President Donald Trump’s stated objective of securing a negotiated settlement will be significantly harder to achieve.

Should Russia succeed in Ukraine despite previous American commitments to prevent such an outcome, the Kremlin is likely to pursue further aggression, potentially against NATO members. China is also surely watching and drawing lessons about Washington’s resolve. If Beijing observes that America is unwilling to support Ukraine at a sustainable cost without risking the life of a single American servicemember, it is unlikely to believe that Washington will send Americans to defend Taiwan. Whether on NATO’s eastern flank or in the Taiwan Strait, perceptions of American weakness only embolden adversaries, making aggression in both theatres more likely and risking otherwise preventable wars with serious consequences for Americans. The Trump administration should immediately reverse its pause in weapons deliveries to avoid such outcomes.

Cameron McMillan is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD’s) Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP), where Ryan Brobst is the deputy director. For more analysis from the authors and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ryan on X @RyanBrobst_. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.