Trump Sets Terms as Russia Offers to Talk — Again

After months of delay and posturing, Russia has responded to President Donald Trump’s two-week ultimatum for progress on peace talks with Ukraine. The Kremlin has agreed, once again, to meet with counterparts from Kyiv in Turkey on June 2. Who Russia sends and what the Kremlin offers may prompt a significant change in the White House’s economic pressure on Moscow.

Is the Kremlin Veering From Its Well-Worn Path?

From the outset of Trump’s peace process, Vladimir Putin has employed a well-honed negotiating strategy that the White House continues to confront.

First, Moscow creates a problem it controls — in this case, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It then demands concessions for easing the very crisis it initiated. Finally, it seeks to extract further Western concessions while keeping that crisis, if only at a simmer, on the stove. This approach has long characterized Moscow’s dealings with foreign capitals.

What’s new is that the White House appears increasingly unwilling to tolerate the strategy.

In early May, Vice President JD Vance dismissed the Kremlin’s demand for Ukrainian territory that was not under Russian control as a requirement for peace. Trump himself has warned of escalating secondary sanctions on Russia if the pattern persists.

Is the Kremlin Serious About Talks? What to Look for at the Meeting

The next meeting between Russia and Ukraine could mark a turning point, depending on three questions:

First, who will Russia send? Dispatching low-level envoys, as Moscow did during its last meeting with Ukraine, would signal continued disregard for Trump’s peace process. This time, Russia may send a more senior delegation even if its negotiating position remains unchanged, as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has indicated.

Second, what does Russia offer? If it is more of the same, territory it does not control, the disarmament of the Ukrainian military, and the “neutrality” of Ukraine, then the negotiations are unlikely to advance.

Third, how does the White House respond? For months, Trump has threatened to increase pressure on Russia over delays in negotiations. That pressure includes secondary sanctions, a potent economic weapon, on countries that purchase Russian energy and support its wartime economy.

Trump would likely have strong backing for such a move in the U.S. Senate. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has lined up 82 co-sponsors for a bill that would impose “500 percent tariffs on any country that buys Moscow’s energy products.” Using tariffs as a form of de facto sanctions is a novel tactic intended to signal U.S. seriousness to both allies and adversaries like China.

What happens in the next phase of negotiations could shape the trajectory of the war for Ukraine this summer. The Russian president does not bluff often. If he doesn’t significantly alter course, Trump will face a decision: follow through on his threats of economic penalties and maintain U.S. credibility as a negotiating power or reveal that he has only been bluffing.

Peter Doran is an adjunct senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy. For more analysis from Peter and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Peter on X @PeterBDoran. Follow FDD on X @FDD.