Israeli Security Chiefs Believe U.S.-Iran Nuclear Agreement Likely

Latest Developments

• Deal More Likely Than Not: Israeli security chiefs believe that a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran is more likely than not, according to the Israeli network Kan. The assessment came ahead of the fourth round of indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran in Rome on May 3. Israel’s political and security cabinets are expected to meet on May 4 to examine the latest developments.
• ’A Deal Will Be Reached,’ Says Trump: President Donald Trump said on April 27 that the negotiations were going “very well,” adding that “a deal will be reached … We’ll have something without needing to start bombing.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was more cautious, stating, “Some of the disagreements are serious … but… the progress so far has been good.” While the details of a potential deal remain unknown, U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) lauded Trump’s public stance that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure must be taken apart, adding: “The only solution is Iran completely dismantling its [nuclear] program, or we should do it for them.”
• Iran Accuses Israel of ‘Dictating’ to Trump: On April 28, Araghchi accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of “brazenly … dictating what President Trump can and cannot do in his diplomacy with Iran.” He further warned that Iran possesses the “capabilities to thwart any attempt by malicious external actors to sabotage its foreign policy or dictate its course.”

FDD Expert Response

“What are the chances that Iran’s rulers — committed for almost half a century to ‘Death to America!’ and now allied with the Axis of Aggressors of Russia, China, and North Korea — will agree to verifiably dismantle their nuclear weapons program? Zero to none if they are not convinced that Washington is ready, willing, and able to ‘do it for them.’ More likely, the United States will need to ‘do it for them.’” — Clifford D. May, Founder and President

“Either Washington has gotten Iran to agree to the full, verifiable, and permanent dismantlement of its nuclear weapons capabilities, or there has been a collapse of this key American demand and the trajectory is toward a fatally flawed interim deal. Such a deal would leave Iran’s nuclear weapons assets intact, remove the threat of U.S. military strikes that brought Tehran to the negotiating table, and relieve pressure on the regime just as President Trump was starting to rebuild the pressure campaign. Congress and the president’s key Republican allies must firmly oppose this and demand Iran fully dismantle its nuclear program.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“Congress should hold the line on no enrichment in Iran. It should equip the president with the leverage to ensure any deal that is attained actually addresses the Iranian nuclear challenge. Cotton’s comments are a helpful start, and if amplified by the legislature, can offset Iranian efforts to build leverage at the negotiating table.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“No Clear Progress at Third Session of U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks, Next Round Scheduled,” FDD Flash Brief

“The Iranian Negotiating Tactic the Trump Administration Doesn’t Get,” by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh

“U.S. and Iran Hold Second Round of Nuclear Talks in Rome,” FDD Flash Brief

“FAQ: What Should Be Washington’s Position on Iran’s Nuclear Dismantlement?” by Andrea Stricker and Janatan Sayeh

“Iran’s Nuclear Disarmament,” by Orde Kittrie, Andrea Stricker, and Behnam Ben Taleblu