January 27, 2025 | Flash Brief

Lebanon Ceasefire Between Hezbollah and Israel Extended to February 18

January 27, 2025 | Flash Brief

Lebanon Ceasefire Between Hezbollah and Israel Extended to February 18

Latest Developments

  • Deadline Pushed: The White House announced on January 26 that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah will be extended until February 18. The extension was agreed after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Lebanese Armed Forces were not likely to fully enforce their obligations — which include the removal of Hezbollah from southern Lebanon to north of the Litani River — by the previous agreed-upon deadline of January 27.
  • Hezbollah Flags Waved as Clashes Break Out: Hezbollah reportedly rejected the extension of the deal and urged residents to return to their homes in southern Lebanon. Clashes between thousands of Hezbollah supporters and IDF troops took place on January 26 near Israeli positions. The IDF said it fired warning shots to disperse rioters and “operated to remove” a vehicle bearing Hezbollah flags that approached troops.
  • Negotiations to Release Hezbollah Fighters Taking Place: During the approximately three-and-a-half-week ceasefire extension, negotiations to release “Lebanese prisoners captured after October 7,” many of whom are Hezbollah terrorists, will take place between Lebanon and Israel. President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said that the ceasefire holding despite January 26 clashes in southern Lebanon is an “indication for all of us to be positive,” adding that Israel has done “pretty good work” in Lebanon.

FDD Expert Response

“Extending the ceasefire deadline was necessary. In 60 days, the Lebanese government has failed to undertake even a single action against Hezbollah, in contravention of its obligations under the November 27 ceasefire deal. Extending the ceasefire deadline, unfortunately, will not rectify this Lebanese inaction, which stems from a lack of will to restrain Hezbollah. Increasingly, it seems Lebanon pursued this ceasefire deal not as a steppingstone to restoring its sovereign control over its territory and monopolizing the use of force in the hands of the state, but to provide Hezbollah with a face-saving offramp from its war with Israel and for Lebanon to continue prevaricating over Hezbollah’s status.” David Daoud, Senior Fellow

“The Lebanese authorities have been putting on a show of ceasefire compliance. But the events on January 26 were a reminder that Lebanon has proven incapable of disarming Hezbollah and has failed to push its presence north of the Litani. The current ceasefire fails to meet Israel’s core war objectives — namely, ensuring the safety of its northern residents and allowing them to return home.” —Ahmad Sharawi, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

‘Not Written in Stone’: Israel Set to Extend Lebanon Truce Deadline,” FDD Flash Brief

Israel’s Dilemma in Lebanon,” by Seth J. Frantzman

Lebanon Chooses Nawaf Salam, an Adversary of Israel, as New Prime Minister,” FDD Flash Brief

With No Power or Constitutional Authority, Lebanon’s New President Won’t Disarm Hezbollah,” by David Daoud

Issues:

Issues:

Hezbollah Israel Israel at War Lebanon

Topics:

Topics:

Iran Israel Middle East Hezbollah Lebanon Donald Trump Israel Defense Forces Benjamin Netanyahu White House Lebanese Armed Forces Litani River Steve Witkoff