January 13, 2025 | Flash Brief

Ahead of Trump Return, Iran Strengthens Forces, Hosts Large Military Exercises

January 13, 2025 | Flash Brief

Ahead of Trump Return, Iran Strengthens Forces, Hosts Large Military Exercises

Latest Developments

  • Iran Stages War Games Utilizing Air Defenses: Iran’s army hosted extensive wargames and military exercises on January 11, including a defense scenario simulating airstrikes against the country’s nuclear sites. The maneuvers tested the ability of Iran’s defense systems to “fight against air, missile and electronic threats in real battlefield conditions,” according to Iranian state media. The Washington Post reported that the air defense systems used in the exercises were “of lower quality” than the Russian-made S-300 systems targeted by Israel during their October 26 retaliatory strikes against the Islamic Republic.
  • State Media Reports Deliveries of Drones, New Warship: Iran also seeks to replenish its weapons stockpiles, unveiling 1,000 newly manufactured drones on January 13. The drones reportedly have “unique features,” including a 2,000-kilometer range, “high destructive power,” sustained autonomous flight, and stealth capabilities. Additionally, Iran’s military is set to receive a new war-fighting ship, with the aim of strengthening Iran’s naval combat capabilities, according to the Iranian army’s coordinating deputy, Rear Adm. Habibollah Sayyari.
  • Iran Faces Renewed Economic Sanctions With Incoming Trump Administration: The bolstering of Iran’s military forces comes ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. During his first term, Trump launched a campaign of maximum pressure sanctions against the Islamic Republic in an effort to stem its ambitions towards a nuclear weapon, a policy he is expected to reimplement upon his resumption of presidential duties.

FDD Expert Response

“Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is looking for a way to prevent looking defanged, and fast. With the loss of regional fortunes thanks to fading proxy power abroad and non-existent long-range strategic air defenses at home, Tehran is looking for deterrence of a theatrical kind, one that aims to restore the previously assumed high cost of attacking the Islamic Republic directly by showcasing capabilities aimed to deny or impede attacks and punish those who launch them.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“Tehran’s failure to mount an effective response to Israel’s air campaign, which targeted the regime’s air defense systems and missile production facilities, underscores its vulnerability to external attacks. This highlights the limitations of the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities, which should not be overstated. The regime’s recent military drills serve more as a domestic intimidation tactic aimed at discouraging protests than as a demonstration of genuine strength.” Janatan Sayeh, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

Tehran’s triad: propaganda, proxies, and preparedness,” by Janatan Sayeh

Biden Weighs Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities Should Tehran Dash for Bomb,” FDD Flash Brief

Iran’s waning influence in the Arab world,” by Janatan Sayeh

Issues:

Issues:

Iran Iran Global Threat Network Iran Missiles Iran Sanctions Military and Political Power

Topics:

Topics:

Iran Israel Tehran Donald Trump Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Islamic republic White House The Washington Post Unmanned aerial vehicle S-300 missile system