Israel Gears Up for Action: Iran’s Missile Moves from Iraq Push U.S. and Israeli Patience to the Brink

Iran’s proxy terrorist organizations in Iraq have claimed more than 100 strikes against Israel in the past year alone, including one drone attack on October 4 that resulted in the deaths of two IDF soldiers and the wounding of 24 at an army base in the Golan Heights. Now, new intelligence suggests Iran may be transferring ballistic missiles to Iraq for a potential launch against Israel. The Islamic Republic continues to treat Iraq as a vassal state and a permissive jurisdiction for its regional terrorist apparatus. As a result, Baghdad’s subordination to Tehran and its role as a staging ground for these proxies mean that Iraq could soon find itself the target of an Israeli reprisal.

Israel Moves to Counter Iran’s Missile Transfers and Launch Capabilities

Israeli intelligence reports indicate that Iran may be planning to use its proxy militias in Iraqi territory to launch further attacks on Israel. One of Tehran’s aims is to avoid direct Israeli retaliation on Iranian soil, a reminder that Iran has few qualms about sacrificing the lives of Palestinians, Iraqis, and others in pursuit of its goal of eliminating the Jewish state. New Israeli satellite imagery reportedly shows Iran transferring ballistic missiles into Iraq, likely to exploit the closer range to Israel. In response, Israel has reportedly issued a formal warning to the Iraqi government to prevent Iran from using Iraqi territory for offensive operations.

According to the Saudi news outlet Elaph, if this warning is disregarded, Israel is prepared to conduct a large-scale strike targeting 30 pre-identified sites in Iraq. However, Israel’s warning will likely go unheeded, much like previous appeals from Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed al-Sudani to Iran’s proxies to cease their missile and drone attacks on the Jewish state. Al-Sudani has consistently struggled to control proxy actions that defy state policy.

Despite U.S. Withdrawal Plans, Iran’s Proxies Remain Unchecked

As the United States prepares to withdraw some of its 2,500 service members from Iraq by late September 2025, threats from Iranian proxies remain persistent. While the frequency of attacks against U.S. forces has decreased since last year’s peak, recent incidents — such as the August attack that injured five American servicemen at Al Asad airbase — have largely gone unanswered. Iran’s proxies have targeted U.S. forces more than 175 times since October 17, 2023, but the Americans responded on only 11 occasions.

In October, Abu Ali al-Askari, a senior official of Kata’eb Hezbollah, the leading Iranian proxy in Iraq, warned that “any targeting of Iraq or the use of its airspace … will invite Kata’eb Hezbollah’s retaliation not only against Israel but also against U.S. bases in Iraq and the region.” Given the U.S. reluctance to punish Iran’s proxies in response to their aggression, Tehran may direct them to strike American targets in response to Israeli military action.

U.S. Must Strengthen Regional Military Posture Ahead of Potential Israeli Strike

With signals of Israel’s readiness to strike Iran-linked targets in Iraq, the United States should direct its forces in Iraq and Syria to prepare for what could be a new round of attacks by Iranian proxies. Washington should likewise prepare to strike back if Iran’s proxies initiate further aggression. A passive stance risks emboldening these militias, who may interpret U.S. inaction as weakness.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. Follow him on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.