Iran Enriched Uranium to Near Atomic-Weapons Grade, IAEA Confirms

Latest Developments

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) today provided a report to member states confirming media accounts that the agency detected particles of near atomic-weapons grade enriched uranium at Iran’s underground Fordow facility. According to the IAEA report, seen by FDD, the agency detected particles enriched to 83.7 percent purity — but observed no corresponding stockpile of uranium — during a monthly interim inspection on January 22. Uranium enriched to at least 90 percent is considered atomic weapons-grade. Tehran dismissed the IAEA’s findings as due to “unintended fluctuations” in enrichment levels. The IAEA said it was not satisfied with Iran’s denials and reported it is still working with Tehran to clarify the matter.

Expert Analysis

“Iran’s explanation that it unintentionally produced near atomic-weapons grade uranium is not credible — Tehran was likely experimenting with higher enrichment and was caught red-handed. The West must act immediately to deter Iran from going further and stockpiling this material.” — Andrea Stricker, Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

“The Biden administration’s misguided Iran policy has allowed Tehran to approach the nuclear threshold with impunity. When the IAEA’s board of governors meets next week, it should vote to censure Iran’s latest provocation and refer the case to the UN Security Council, where the West should snap back multilateral Iran sanctions.” — Ambassador Jackie Wolcott, Board Chair of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program and Former U.S. Permanent Representative to the IAEA (2018-2021)

IAEA Instituted Stronger Inspection Efforts

The IAEA informed Iran that the 83.7 percent enriched uranium particles at Fordow were “inconsistent” with the 60 percent level of uranium enrichment currently taking place there and “requested Iran to clarify the origin” of the particles. Tehran’s IAEA safeguards agreement requires Iran to declare and explain such activities. It is unlikely that Tehran’s enrichment levels would have accidentally fluctuated to 84 percent. Iran was likely experimenting with higher enrichment that resulted in no stockpile of the material.

The IAEA also insisted on a stronger inspection regime for Fordow. At a February 23 meeting between the IAEA and senior Iranian officials in Tehran, Iran agreed to the agency’s request to increase the “frequency and intensity of Agency verification activities” at the facility.

Iran’s Atomic Advances

Since entering office in January 2021, the Biden administration has presided over numerous qualitative Iranian nuclear advances, as Tehran capitalized on reduced pressure and the West’s fruitless effort to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The latest IAEA report indicates that Iran has accumulated enough 60 percent enriched uranium — which can be used directly in a crude nuclear device — for at least two nuclear weapons. It is weeks away from producing enough weapons-grade uranium for several atomic bombs.

Related Analysis

“Without Evidence, Iran Denies Reports it Enriched Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Enriching Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Approaches the Nuclear Threshold,” by Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero