Iranian Nationalists Reject the Regime

Excerpt

In Washington’s liberal foreign-policy circles, it has long been accepted that any significant foreign military action against Iran would be counterproductive. Iranian nationalism would kick into gear, turning opponents of the regime into angry patriots. Iranian hard-liners would become more recalcitrant, foreclosing the possibility of reform. But 44 years after the Islamic revolution, it’s no longer true that Iranian nationalists support the status quo. In fact, they seem to oppose it.

The passage of time hasn’t been kind to Iran’s theocracy. The mullahs have done much to anger the Iranian people since 1979 and little to win them over. The ruling clergy have always clashed with and sought to quash the Islamic Republic’s limited democracy, which initially lent the government considerable domestic political legitimacy and popular support. As democracy died, and with it the possibility of internal reform, protests grew in size and number. Systemic corruption, a dismal economic record, extraordinary managerial incompetence during the Covid pandemic, and a foreign policy whose costs are more obvious than its benefits have alienated Iranians.

Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Follow Reuel on Twitter @ReuelMGerecht. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.