The Limits of Turkey’s Israeli Charm Offensive

The Cellcom incident was far from isolated. Just this year, Hamas members based in Turkey have allegedly helped an East Jerusalem man establish charitable organizations as embezzlement fronts, provided weapons training to Palestinians, and funneled money to pay the families of Palestinians killed or imprisoned by Israel for terrorism offenses.

Given this history, why was Gantz invited? First, Erdogan is seeking a third term as president when he is arguably at his weakest politically. His unpopularity is mainly due to the country’s sluggish economy, which Erdogan has run into a ditch by insisting on unorthodox economic policies. This has led to record levels of annual inflation (83 percent), currency devaluation, and the erosion of the country’s middle class.

Erdogan’s position is also precarious due to increasing reliance on Russia since 2016 for energy security, weapons procurement, and Turkey’s “security” goals in Syria. Vladimir Putin’s isolation and toxicity following his invasion of Ukraine have forced Turkey to look elsewhere.

While Putin has signaled that he would like to make Turkey “an energy hub” for transporting Russian natural gas to the region, Ankara ultimately remains too isolated and excluded from regional energy cooperation, the East Mediterranean Gas Forum in particular. Turkey has expressed its willingness to reduce its dependence on Russia by helping pipe Israeli gas to Europe, but Turkey’s prospective deal is little more than a pipe dream.

Erdogan’s charm offensive with Israel signals that Turkey can turn on a dime and reduce its dependence on Moscow. In doing so, Erdogan continues to gesture to regional powers, such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey’s Western allies, that it remains relevant and, to a limited degree, can be an asset. Turkey’s brokering of a major grain shipment deal from Ukraine that helped avert a world food shortage and the sale of TB2 drones to the Ukrainian military demonstrated its utility.

Israel has several interests in improved ties with Turkey, but the most direct one is inducing Turkey to expel Hamas. Beyond that, there is value in being on good terms with what is arguably the strongest military in the Middle East, a major energy rival, and a country that is operating in Syria, close to Israel.

The pillars of the Israel-Turkey relationship—energy and defense cooperation—require long-term agreements built on mutual trust, not Erdogan’s capricious vacillation between enmity and cooperation. Ejecting Hamas would be a good start, and the decrease in overt hostility is certainly positive, but Gantz’s visit is, at best, window dressing on a cold peace.

David May (@DavidSamuelMay) is a research manager and senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Sinan Ciddi (@SinanCiddi) is a nonresident senior fellow. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.