December 3, 2021 | The Karabakh Gambit: Responsibility for the Future

The Trigger for War: Energy in the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan War

December 3, 2021 | The Karabakh Gambit: Responsibility for the Future

The Trigger for War: Energy in the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan War

Excerpt

Traditionally, militaries at war seek to meet their operational energy1 needs, gain access to energy supplies, and deny energy supplies to their adversaries. However, in the 2020 Armenia—Azerbaijan War, energy played additional central roles. More than any other single factor, threats to energy infrastructure served as the trigger to the reignition of hostilities. The 2020 Armenia—Azerbaijan War took place as the energy map of the South Caucasus, the greater Caspian region and Europe was undergoing significant change. The war broke out on the eve of the commencement of operations of the Southern Gas Corridor, bringing the first new natural gas volumes to Europe in decades. Moreover, energy infrastructure was also “weaponized” during the fighting, as has happened in warfare throughout history. This chapter will analyze the energy factor in the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan War and discuss the implications for future warfare. In addition, the chapter will examine post-war regional energy supply changes and potential opportunities for new energy flows and cooperation in the wider South Caucasus region.

Energy—the trigger for war

The first phase of the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan War began on July 12 in the Azerbaijani region of Tovuz along the northern section of the international border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This region is located 300 kilometers north of what was the line of contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan’s forces in the occupied territories. Armenia launched a surprise attack several weeks before Azerbaijan planned to open the commercial operations of the Southern Gas Corridor.2 This $33 billion mega-natural gas export project was slated to bring the first new volumes of natural gas to Europe in decades. It was poised to turn Azerbaijan into a major supplier of energy to Europe and provide a new revenue stream, improving Azerbaijan’s strategic position.

In the July 2020 attacks, Armenian troops attempted to gain control of the Qaraqaya Heights in Azerbaijan. The heights are perched above the energy and transit corridor that runs from the Caspian Sea to Europe and includes the Southern Gas Corridor. Armenian control of the heights would have enabled Yerevan to threaten the energy and transit corridor and thus the attacks posed a strategic threat to Azerbaijan. In the attacks, 12 Azerbaijani troops were killed, including an Azerbaijani general, Major General Polad Hashimov. Four Armenian troops were killed in the subsequent counterattack. In parallel with the attacks at Tovuz, Armenian troops shelled Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani exclave.

Prof. Brenda Shaffer is a faculty member at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. She is also a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and Senior Advisor for Energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank. Follow her on Twitter @ProfBShaffer. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

  1. Operational energy is the “energy required for training, moving, and sustaining military forces and weapons platforms for military operations.” See on the definition of operational energy, US Department of Defense, “Energy for the Warfighter: Operational Energy Strategy,” (2011). Accessed at: https://apps. dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA544100.pdf
  2. Brenda Shaffer, “Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict poses threat to European energy security,” FDD Policy Brief, July 17, 2020. Accessed at: https://www. fdd.org/analysis/2020/07/17/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-energy-security/