Israel must not support a temporary Iranian nuclear deal

Responding to the latest failed round of nuclear talks in Vienna, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and President Isaac Herzog demanded that the US and the world not allow Iran to continue setting the tone and dragging its feet in negotiations while the Iranians continue developing their abilities and approach nuclear threshold status.

As Herzog noted, Israel would be happy to see a good, comprehensive deal that would permanently prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but that is far from what is happening in Vienna and what will happen down the line.

The approach of US President Joe Biden and US Special Envoy to Iran Robert Malley, which the Europeans have also reluctantly adopted, is not to punish the Iranians for their repeated violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; their lack of cooperation with International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors; and their failure to comply with any agreement they sign, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The US wants to maintain the fictitious image of progress toward a diplomatic solution, albeit a temporary one, at any cost, and it will likely be a very bad one.

The American aspiration is to reach a “less for less” deal or a “different for different” deal. This effectively means a “more for less” or even a “much more for much less” deal. Even partial removal of sanctions will inject billions of dollars into Iran, allowing it to rehabilitate its economy and support terrorism, and will signal to markets that business can and should be conducted with Iran.

Just as I predicted in an opinion piece last week, Iran has shown up at the negotiating table with maximal, absurd demands. The Iranians spoke only of the full removal of sanctions; American guarantees that a future US administration will not withdraw from the deal; and the full closure of all IAEA investigations. As for changes to their nuclear activities and regional actions, not a word was said.

This is unsurprising to those familiar with the Iranian doctrine, which is based on the following assumptions: That the US is weak and will not attack; that Israel does not have the ability to attack (and inaccurate, irresponsible reports in Israel assist them in believing they are right); that the Iranian economy can withstand pressure; and that there is no credible military and economic threat to the regime, its leaders’ lives, or their personal property.

In Israel, articles by and interviews with certain irresponsible officials, some who used to hold high-ranking positions, have been published in which they recommend accepting the fact that Iran will become a nuclear threshold state and preparing for this outcome because it is inevitable. This would be a grave mistake and harm national security.

On the other hand, at this stage, it seems that decision-makers in Israel are not falling into this trap. All those proposing that we encourage or accept a partial deal have failed to realize that this is the worst of all possible options. This is not a temporary agreement, but an agreement that will become permanent. Anyone who thinks this is how we will buy time and better prepare ourselves to tackle the Iranian nuclear program in a few years is wrong and is misleading others.

A “more for less” type of deal, which the Americans hope to secure, will certainly allow Iran to quickly reach the “immunity zone” and become a nuclear threshold state, meaning a state that has the ability to build a bomb solely based on its own, independent decision to do so, without any outside player being able to stop it and regardless of the time it would take. Israel should pressure the US and other world powers to revert to maximum economic pressure against Iran, as well as ensure that there is a credible military threat on the table.

We are approaching the moment of truth when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program, and Israel might need to act on its leaders’ promises to protect the security of the state and its citizens on its own. It would be a mistake to play for time and build a stable for horses that will be long gone once those stables are ready.