June 29, 2021 | FDD Tracker: June 15 – 29, 2021

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late June

June 29, 2021 | FDD Tracker: June 15 – 29, 2021

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late June

Trend Overview

Edited by David Adesnik

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker, where FDD’s experts and scholars assess the administration’s foreign policy every two weeks. As always, they provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they study. As the reporting window closed for this issue of the tracker, President Joe Biden ordered airstrikes on Iran-backed militias responsible for persistent attacks on U.S. troops and facilities in Iraq. These attacks, along with the rigged election that elevated human rights violator Ebrahim Raisi to the Iranian presidency, underscore the extent to which Tehran has responded to Washington’s goodwill gestures by escalating tensions. Meanwhile, at his first summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Biden sought to de-escalate U.S.-Russian tensions while warning against Russian cyberattacks and other threats. So far, there is no indication that Putin is prepared to give any ground on cyber issues, human rights, or the detention of U.S. citizens. Washington and Moscow are also headed toward a showdown at the UN Security Council as Russia threatens to veto aid for millions of Syrian civilians. Check back in two weeks to see if the two sides avoided a clash and whether Tehran remains intransigent.

Arms Control and Nonproliferation

By Anthony Ruggiero and Andrea Stricker

Previous Trend: Negative

President Biden met with President Putin on June 16 in Geneva, where the two leaders agreed to hold future arms control talks. In February, both countries extended the New START treaty through 2026, ensuring continued caps on deployed strategic nuclear warheads as well as on certain launchers and bombers, but the agreement does not cover Russia’s large arsenal of non-strategic weapons or certain new-generation nuclear systems Russia is developing. The Biden administration also said that it is ready to talk to North Korea without preconditions, but Pyongyang rejected those overtures. The United States and five other world powers concluded a sixth round of negotiations in Vienna to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear accord, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Islamic Republic is still not cooperating with an International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards inquiry into the regime’s suspicious nuclear activities. A drone strike may have damaged an Iranian centrifuge assembly facility in Karaj, but Tehran claims that it thwarted the attack. Sabotage events at Iran’s nuclear facilities, likely carried out by the Israeli Mossad, have recently escalated as world powers attempt to lock in the JCPOA. The accord would eventually legalize Iran’s expanding uranium enrichment program and position Tehran closer to nuclear weapons.

China

By Craig Singleton

Previous Trend: Positive

The Biden administration remains focused on ratcheting up international pressure on Beijing in anticipation of the Chinese Communist Party’s centennial celebration in July. Having voiced concerns about Chinese human rights violations during the G7, NATO, and EU-U.S. summits earlier this month, the Biden administration signaled its plans to bar imports of a material used in solar panels produced by a Chinese-based firm that U.S. officials claim is engaged in forced-labor practices. The Commerce Department also slapped restrictions on five Chinese companies for engaging in forced-labor abuses against Uighur Muslims in China’s Xinjiang province. These moves are occurring while Beijing cracks down on press freedom in Hong Kong, including through the closure of the city’s biggest pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily. While China charges ahead in advancing key aspects of its 14th Five-Year Plan, which centers on massive investments in research and development, U.S. policymakers remain conflicted about how best to respond to this Sputnik-like moment. Efforts to pass comprehensive counter-China legislation have stalled in Congress and are unlikely to proceed before the August recess. Washington’s public tension with Beijing will also loom over this week’s G20 gathering in Italy, where there are no plans for Secretary of State Antony Blinken to meet with his Chinese counterpart.

Cyber

By RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and Annie Fixler

Previous Trend: Positive

News reports indicate President Biden delivered a strong message to President Putin about the seriousness with which the United States views malicious cyber activity emanating from Russia, particularly when that activity impacts the 16 critical U.S. infrastructure sectors defined in Presidential Policy Directive 21. The success of this cyber “signaling,” however, will be determined by whether Russia continues to harbor cybercriminals and by how the U.S. government responds when Russian-based hackers next engage in malicious cyber activity targeting U.S. critical infrastructure. One day after the summit, the Senate confirmed Chris Inglis to be the first-ever National Cyber Director. The near-record speed of this confirmation demonstrates bipartisan support for more robust federal government cyber coordination and response capabilities. The White House will now need to resource the office quickly. Finally, while the administration continues to emphasize its prioritization of cybersecurity, the secretary of energy appeared to confirm that the administration does not intend to name an assistant secretary to lead the Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). While the secretary defended the decision by arguing that CESER can be more effectively led by a civil servant, a leadership downgrade sends a troubling signal to industry and the rest of the interagency about the importance the department places on cybersecurity.

Defense

By Bradley Bowman

Previous Trend: Negative

President Biden completed his first overseas trip as president this month, attending the G7 and NATO summits before meeting with President Putin in Geneva. Biden’s emphasis on the value of allies in general, and NATO in particular, in confronting shared security threats represents a welcome departure from his predecessor’s short-sighted approach. By reiterating that the United States views Article 5 of the NATO treaty as “a sacred commitment,” Biden sent an important message of deterrence. The administration deserves credit for pushing the G7 and NATO to explicitly address the growing and multifaceted threat from China in their respective communiques. However, deterring and defeating aggression requires more than diplomatic pronouncements — or what Lieutenant General (Ret.) H.R. McMaster rightly calls “better mood music” at transatlantic meetings. Deterring aggression in Eastern Europe or the Taiwan Strait, or in space or cyberspace, requires adversaries to believe America has both the political will and the military capability to respond decisively. Biden’s diplomatic efforts in Europe may help persuade adversaries that the United States has the necessary political will, but that will mean little if America lacks sufficient hard power. That means Congress must reject Biden’s defense budget proposal, which would not even keep pace with projected inflation.

Europe

By John Hardie

Previous Trend: Positive

At the June 15 U.S.-EU summit, Washington and Brussels agreed to establish a Trade and Technology Council, suspend tariffs related to the Airbus-Boeing trade dispute, and address China’s non-market trade practices. Still, the administration has frustrated European allies by maintaining Trump-era steel and aluminum tariffs. When Secretary Blinken visited Germany and France last week, his counterparts expressed delight that America is “back,” although Europeansconcerns linger. Blinken and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas discussed the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline, which will likely top the agenda when Germany’s chancellor visits the White House next month. Seeking to avoid tensions with Berlin, which backs the pipeline, the administration seems to have tacitly accepted that NS2 will eventually come online, opting instead to push Germany to mitigate the NS2 threat. Meanwhile, Russia continues to use gas a coercive tool, seeking to bully Ukraine and limiting top-up supplies amid soaring prices in an apparent attempt to strong-arm European governments into accepting NS2. Finally, the United States and transatlantic allies issued coordinated sanctions over Minsk’s May 23 forced diversion of a Ryanair flight. Unlike the European Union, however, Treasury did not issue additional sanctions against economically significant targets or wealthy businessmen close to Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko.

Gulf

By Varsha Koduvayur

Previous Trend: Negative

The Biden administration is removing equipment and troops from the Middle East, including Patriot anti-missile batteries from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and THAAD systems from Saudi Arabia. A U.S. defense official painted the withdrawals as a return to more normal levels of defense, citing former President Donald Trump’s buildup in the region following the attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019. Nevertheless, the withdrawal is likely to stoke Gulf allies’ fears of an eventual U.S. retrenchment from the region. U.S.-Saudi ties may be strained further by recent revelations that four members of the Saudi hit squad that killed Jamal Khashoggi received paramilitary training in the United States from a private company. The White House may feel renewed pressure to distance itself from Riyadh, since several members of President Biden’s own party continue to feel he was not harsh enough in punishing the kingdom for Khashoggi’s murder. In Yemen, warring parties appear closer to a deal, with Saudi Arabia considering lifting its blockade of Houthi-controlled ports in exchange for beginning ceasefire negotiations. Such an agreement would be welcomed by the Biden administration, but Riyadh is likely to want some security guarantees in advance of such a deal.

Indo-Pacific

By Craig Singleton

Previous Trend: Neutral

Tensions remain high after 28 Chinese aircraft, including fighter jets and nuclear bombers, entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, the largest Chinese incursion to date. In response, the U.S. Navy dispatched the USS Curtis Wilbur to transit through the Taiwan Strait. In a warning to Beijing, the Pentagon also announced that the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group would soon deploy to the region, filling the void left by the USS Ronald Reagan as it heads to the Middle East to support the Afghanistan withdrawal. Japan and other Western powers have meanwhile stepped up support for Taiwan, including through the imminent arrival of the United Kingdom’s own strike group to the region. While these moves will be welcomed in Washington, clear points of divergence remain between Europe’s various approaches to the region. Germany, for example, focuses on ASEAN-centered institutions, while France and the United Kingdom prefer to strengthen bilateral ties with specific Southeast Asian states. The Biden administration’s burden lies in capitalizing on these burgeoning partnerships while quietly resolving intra-alliance disputes. For now, time appears to be on America’s side, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley does not believe China intends to invade Taiwan within the next 12 to 13 months.

International Organizations

By Richard Goldberg

Previous Trend: Negative

European officials complained that the Biden administration has yet to engage on the issue of reviving the World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) Appellate Body. The reported complaints suggest President Biden may value the leverage created by his predecessor to drive WTO reforms by blocking appointments to the organization’s dispute resolution mechanism and denying China opportunities to steal U.S. intellectual property. Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the Biden administration is “definitely looking for … opportunities” within the UN system to promote normalization between Israel and Arab and Muslim countries. Thomas-Greenfield said she had already “engaged with countries who signed on to the Abraham Accord to see how we can work together to better support our common goals.” Separately, the ambassador told members of Congress that she had personally engaged with the secretary-general of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) to raise concerns about UNRWA school textbooks that promote antisemitism and violence against Israel — a positive step but far short of leveraging U.S. funding to drive systemic reforms needed to address the agency’s lack of anti-terror financial controls and the institutional barriers it creates to Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Iran

By Richard Goldberg

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Biden administration reaffirmed its desire to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and provide billions of dollars to the Islamic Republic by lifting U.S. sanctions despite the supreme leader’s selection of Ebrahim Raisi — a mass murderer and serial human rights abuser — as the regime’s next president. Rather than decrying Iran’s illegitimate election or demonstrating concrete support for the Iranian people, the administration betrayed its commitment to “putting human rights at the center of U.S. foreign policy” and signaled its readiness to effectively reward Raisi’s selection by lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran. In his first press conference after winning Iran’s sham election, Raisi declared that Tehran would never agree to any changes to the nuclear deal, rejecting limits on Iran’s missile program and dashing President Biden’s vision of rejoining the agreement as a prelude to negotiating a “longer, stronger deal.” Rather than pausing to rethink its strategy, the State Department ignored Raisi’s definitive statements and instead elevated a return to the deal alone as the administration’s primary objective, even though the agreement is already expiring, does not block Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons, and does not address Iran’s missile development, sponsorship of terrorism, proliferation activities, or human rights abuses.

Israel

By David May

Previous Trend: Positive

On June 15, the Biden administration nominated former Under Secretary of State Thomas Nides to be the U.S. ambassador to Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Commander-in-Chief Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi met with his American counterpart, General Milley, at the Pentagon on June 22 and with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on June 23 to discuss the Iranian nuclear threat. Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid met with Secretary Blinken in Rome on June 27 amid U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, marking the first meeting between a U.S. cabinet member and a cabinet member of the new Israeli government. The United States is expected to delay the next round of Iran talks in order to hear from the new Israeli government. On a related note, the United States and Israel reportedly held talks this month to coordinate efforts to counter Iranian drones. On June 28, President Biden hosted outgoing Israeli President Reuven Rivlin. Additionally, an unnamed senior State Department official said that the Biden administration is committed to getting the Palestinian Authority to reform its policy of paying terrorists. Despite these friendly overtures to the new Israeli government, the Washington Free Beacon reported that the State Department is poised to roll back the Trump administration’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a charge State adamantly denied.

Korea

By David Maxwell and Mathew Ha

Previous Trend: Positive

The Biden administration’s decision to maintain all North Korea sanctions reinforces Washington’s comprehensive policy toward Pyongyang, which entails the implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions; the dismantlement of North Korea’s missile and nuclear arsenals; accountability for human rights; and halting Pyongyang’s global illicit activities, malicious cyber operations, and proliferation. Enforcing sanctions will be essential, as they provide the necessary leverage to support diplomatic efforts. At the request of the ROK administration, the ROK-U.S. strategy working group may be terminated due to perceptions that it hinders North-South engagement and as a concession to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. The ROK government continues to suggest other concessions, such as economic incentives, sanctions relief, and canceling combined military exercises, to rekindle negotiations. Washington must encourage Seoul to avoid concessions. Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong and North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Son Gwan provided statements suggesting Pyongyang is abandoning diplomacy with the United States. This reaffirms that North Korea has not abandoned its political warfare strategy to force concessions from the United States and South Korea in exchange for a North Korean return to negotiations. The ROK-U.S. alliance must coordinate its North Korea strategy so it not only makes room for dialogue but also maintains sufficient pressure to support effective diplomatic efforts and “stern deterrence.”

Latin America

By Carrie Filipetti and Emanuele Ottolenghi

Previous Trend: Neutral

U.S. diplomacy continues to prioritize Latin America. The State Department coordinated with 26 other countries to pass an Organization of American States resolution condemning the Nicaraguan regime’s ongoing repression of the opposition. The Biden administration announced nominees for key ambassadorships in the hemisphere, including its envoys to Mexico, Paraguay, and Costa Rica, which will enable the administration to start building relationships in the region. A senior delegation is traveling to Paraguay, Panama, and El Salvador to promote the administration’s priorities of combating corruption, promoting democracy, and helping allies fight the global pandemic. Thanks to the administration’s successful diplomacy, Iranian ships widely believed to be carrying weapons to Venezuela never crossed the Atlantic. Yet there is still work to be done on this issue. Another Iranian cargo plane landed in Caracas on June 21, this time after a stopover in Mauritania. The administration needs to ramp up efforts to disrupt this Iranian airlift. The Biden administration appropriately rejected the Nicolás Maduro regime’s pleas for sanctions relief and has begun to advocate a peaceful transition to democracy while building international consensus. Whispers of a negotiation are both promising and concerning, as they carry the risk of further manipulations by the Maduro regime.

Lebanon

By Tony Badran

Previous Trend: Very Negative

On June 17, the Biden administration participated in a virtual conference organized by France to provide urgent assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). The conference approved in-kind aid on a bilateral level between Lebanon and donor countries, but it failed to secure Saudi participation — something the Biden administration wants. With legal restrictions blocking the administration from providing the cash assistance sought by the Lebanese, getting the Saudis to renew support would have solved that problem for Washington. Still, the Biden administration has taken pride in finding “creative ways” to transfer $59 million in Section 1226 funding for border security operations. After the conference, the Pentagon disclosed that it is looking to “offset the costs … of [LAF] salaries” by subsidizing some of the LAF’s other operational costs. The United States effectively underwrites LAF procurement, as almost all the LAF’s expenditures go toward salaries, pensions, and benefits, especially for its bloated officer corps. Whereas the United States recently donated three naval vessels to the LAF, France, by contrast, opened a line of credit for the bankrupt Lebanese to pay for four French vessels. The Biden administration’s “creative” mining for funds may end up spending taxpayer dollars to cover not only LAF salaries but also its purchase of French hardware.

Russia

By John Hardie

Previous Trend: Neutral

President Biden met with President Putin in Geneva on June 16, looking to kickstart efforts to make U.S.-Russia relations more “stable and predictable” and thus free up bandwidth for China and domestic issues. The summit cleared the low bar set by the White House and Kremlin. The two presidents agreed to return their ambassadors and discussed cooperation on issues such as Iran, Afghanistan, and the Arctic. They also reaffirmed the Reagan-Gorbachev declaration that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” and committed to renewed dialogue on arms control, space, and cybersecurity. Importantly, Biden warned against cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure, whether by state actors or state-harbored cybercriminals, threatening potential retaliation. He also reaffirmed support for Ukraine and pressed Putin over Russia’s election interference, domestic repression, and detention of American citizens. Time will tell whether the aforementioned dialogues will yield progress. But Biden should not delude himself that Moscow will simply sit quietly or otherwise broadly improve its behavior: U.S.-Russia tensions reflect fundamentally different visions for the international order, and the summit may have reinforced for Putin that aggression earns international attention and respect. Biden, therefore, should remain ready to confront Moscow. In a signal of resolve, the administration says it is preparing further sanctions over Russia’s mistreatment of dissident Alexei Navalny.

Sunni Jihadism

By Bill Roggio

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Taliban have gone on the offensive against the Afghan government and have taken control of more than 60 districts since May 1. The Taliban offensive has primarily focused on northern Afghanistan, where Taliban fighters have entered the cities of Kunduz and Pul-i-Khumri and are on the outskirts of Mazar-i-Sharif and Taloqan. Reportedly, the Taliban are surprised at the speed of their advance. Deputy Emir Sirajuddin Haqqani ordered his fighters to treat kindly soldiers, policemen, and government officials who surrender, and to prepare to govern captured territory. The U.S. military said that more than 50 percent of its forces have withdrawn from Afghanistan, but that it may keep 650 troops in Kabul to protect the embassy and airport. The U.S. military also launched airstrikes against the Taliban as Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited Washington. President Biden said that Afghan translators and others who helped the United States “would not be left behind.” Secretary Blinken commented, “[W]e’re also looking very hard at whether the Taliban is at all serious about a peaceful resolution to the conflict.” In Somalia, an al-Shabaab suicide bomber killed 15 people outside of a military training camp in Mogadishu. The Somali military killed 15 al-Shabaab fighters as they attacked a base in Dinsoor and captured a key leader in Jowhar.

Syria

By David Adesnik

Previous Trend: Neutral

Following his summit in Geneva with President Putin, President Biden said he advised his Russian counterpart of “the urgent need to preserve and reopen the humanitarian corridors in Syria so that we can get food — just simple food and basic necessities to people who are starving to death.” The UN Security Council has to reauthorize such aid by July 10, giving Russia the opportunity to veto further assistance. National Security Adviser Sullivan said Putin did not indicate how Russia would vote, but called the exchange “a constructive conversation.” Security Council permission is necessary for cross-border aid that goes directly to the population of rebel-held territory without going through Damascus, an arrangement made necessary by the Bashar al-Assad regime’s systematic obstruction and diversion of humanitarian assistance since the earliest days of the war. The week after the Geneva summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied that Assad was responsible for blocking aid from Damascus, and said Russia would resist Western governments’ attempt to “blackmail” Moscow. Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations likewise dismissed cross-border aid as an “anachronism.” While the White House is treating the continuation of aid as a high-priority objective, it remains unclear what leverage Biden will employ to overcome Russian resistance.

Turkey

By Aykan Erdemir

Previous Trend: Positive

President Biden held his first in-person meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit on June 14. In the run-up to the meeting, Erdogan proposed having Turkish troops guard and run Kabul’s airport following the scheduled withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in September. The Turkish president wanted to use his offer as leverage to earn Biden’s goodwill and hoped that the photos and reports of a cordial meeting with Biden would provide a much-needed boost to Turkey’s struggling currency, which hit a record low in early June. In an attempt to replicate his personalized and transactional relationship with President Donald Trump, Erdogan preferred a one-on-one meeting with Biden, leaving out any diplomats or notetakers from either side, with the exception of an unofficial translator. Biden should have stayed true to his administration’s goal of running bilateral relations through formal and institutional channels, instead of accommodating Erdogan’s unconventional request, which also drew the Turkish opposition’s criticism for its breach of diplomatic protocol. The Biden administration also should have condemned Ankara’s latest attempt to ban Turkey’s third-largest party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, and disenfranchise nearly 6 million voters.

Disclaimer

The analyses above do not necessarily represent the institutional views of FDD.

Issues:

Arab Politics China Cyber Gulf States Indo-Pacific International Organizations Iran Israel Jihadism Lebanon Military and Political Power North Korea Russia Syria The Long War Turkey U.S. Defense Policy and Strategy