To overcome the weaknesses posed by obsolete equipment as well as severe logistics shortfalls caused by poor economic conditions and international sanctions, the regime has developed a wide range of asymmetric capabilities. These include not only its nuclear and missile programs, but also chemical and biological weapons, advanced cyber operations, and one of the world’s largest special operations forces. In addition to its long-range missiles it has been developing new missile, cruise missile, and rocket systems that can reach the so-called “fat targets” of Camp Humphreys (which hosts the majority of U.S. ground forces), Osan Air Base (the center of combined ROK and U.S. air power), and Cheongju Air base (the ROK F-35 base). Pyongyang’s missile and rocket arsenal provides the North with attack options at the initiation of hostilities that could destroy U.S. ground forces and attrit a key allied capability: air power.
Despite its inferior capabilities in conventional forces and logistics, the North’s military mass and asymmetric strengths make it capable of causing death and destruction in the South on a scale unseen since the Korean War.
The North has developed its military capabilities to support its seven-decades-old strategy of subversion, coercion/extortion, and use of force to achieve unification under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and gulag state to ensure survival of the Kim family regime. In short, the regime wants to unify the Korean Peninsula on its terms and eliminate the Republic of Korea.
While war is the most dangerous threat to the alliance and the region, there are other threats for which the ROK/U.S. alliance prepares. The most significant is the potential for instability and regime collapse in the north. A collapse could lead to a range of contingencies that includes responding to a humanitarian disaster, recovery and security of the full range of Pyongyang’s weapons of mass destruction, dealing with large-scale refugee flows, resistance and a likely insurgency opposing occupying forces, and internal conflict and civil war. Since the conditions leading to regime collapse may also cause Kim Jong-Un to order the execution of his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force to try to ensure his survival, the alliance may face a compound threat comprising two or more of the contingencies listed above. Instability and collapse will not be a benign event.
For 67 years, the U.S. and South Korea have deterred North Korea from attacking the South and resuming hostilities to achieve its objective of unification. In 1997, the highest ranking defector from North Korea, Hwang Jang-yop was asked why the north has not attacked despite its strategy and enormous investment in its military capabilities. He simply answered, the presence of U.S. forces is the only thing deterring war on the Korean Peninsula.
Complex problems of withdrawal
A decision to withdraw any number of troops below the floor of 28,500 will require significant support from Congress in the form of authorization and appropriation. The question for the Pentagon, INDOPACOM, and USFK is whether they have completed contingency plans to withdraw troops.
A U.S. troop withdrawal from the peninsula would take time and impose significant costs, running into the hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars. Transportation and logistics demands would be immense. Again, this would not be as simple as providing commercial airline tickets and sending people to Incheon Airport. The United States would likely spend months moving equipment within Korea to Pier 8 in the Port of Busan for shipping back to the States. The travel costs for moving all personnel and dependents would be sizable, even if a combination of military transport (which would not be enough), commercial air, and contracted charter were used. Then, there are base-mitigation costs for the environmental impact of 70 years of base operations. That is why there has not been an expeditious turnover of bases that have already been programmed for return.
Once the troops and their equipment return home, DoD will have to face the second question: Where will they go? This, too, is a complex issue. It will be further complicated by potential troop withdrawals from other locations such as Germany and Japan. The U.S. military has optimized the base structure in the continental United States (CONUS) over the past couple of decades through a process known as BRAC (base realignment and closure). If there is no place to put these 28,500 U.S. troops currently stationed in South Korea, the military may have to inactivate the force structure that exists in Korea. This will reduce overall U.S military capabilities.
On the other hand, if there is a decision to retain the Korean force structure, there would need to be a rather large appropriation for military construction on bases throughout the United States. Facilities would have to be built to station these units (all facilities, from HQ and maintenance buildings to barracks). In addition to the effect on deterrence and the security of South Korea, the administration and Congress must assess if the cost of withdrawal provides any substantial benefit to military force posture and the United States.
Finally, it is the shared interests and shared values that underpin our linchpin alliance in northeast Asia. Removing U.S. troops will undermine U.S. national security interests. We should recall the words of the recently passed Gen. Paik Sun-yup, a national hero of Korea and the ROK/U.S. alliance who fight side by side MacArthur and Ridgway and convinced President Eisenhower to rebuild the ROK Army during the war. In a 2006 interview General Paik insisted that “crisis-driven political-military decisions here will ultimately determine the balance of power throughout Asia, the most important region for the world’s economy. This peninsula is the pivot.”
David Maxwell, a 30-year veteran of the United States Army and retired Special Forces colonel, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from David and CMPP, please subscribe here. Follow David on Twitter @davidmaxwell161. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.