Trudeau’s policy on Iran appears to be animated by political disdain for the Trump administration rather than an objective assessment of Canada’s interests. Trudeau notably blamed the Islamic Republic’s shooting of the Ukrainian airliner on “regional tensions” between the U.S. and Iran, thus placing responsibility partially on Washington.
Trudeau’s approach toward Iran is also shaped by a desire to make Canada an independent global actor that does not defer to American wishes, which was most notably demonstrated by his recent failed attempt to secure a UN Security Council seat for Ottawa.
The Trudeau government’s financial motivations should also not be underestimated. Canadian companies such as Bombardier stand to reap billions of dollars if another nuclear agreement is reached and U.S. sanctions are eased. Bombardier’s sales to Iran Air collapsed, along with even larger deals reached by Boeing and Airbus, when the U.S. designated the Iranian airline in 2018 for its ties to the IRGC.
Can Trudeau be compelled to change his Iran policy? The Canadian civil rights organization B’nai Brith has filed a lawsuit demanding that Trudeau fulfill a parliamentary motion demanding the designation of the entire IRGC as a terrorist organization. Whether this will work is uncertain. Canadian-Iranian political analyst Nikahang Kowsar believes that Trudeau cares deeply about his public image and will respond to criticism, especially from Canadian-Iranians and human rights organizations.
The Canadian-Iranian community plays an important role in Canadian politics, especially in large cities such as Toronto, and could conceivably sway future elections against Trudeau’s Liberals if he is not more aggressive against the Islamic Republic. The families of victims of the Ukraine airliner will be the leading voice on the Iran issue. Their pain and anguish will make it difficult for Trudeau to ignore them.
Trudeau’s policy of engagement will not produce any wins for Canada when dealing with a regime that best responds to economic and diplomatic pressure. The Liberal party is unlikely to apply maximum pressure against Tehran unless it experiences pressure from the Canadian public, especially Canadian-Iranians. It is time that their voices are heard, loudly and clearly.
Alireza Nader is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to the FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). FDD is a Washington, D.C.-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Follow Alireza on Twitter @AlirezaNader.