FDD Report Details How Trump Administration Can Create a New Iran Deal

(Washington, DC, June 26, 2019) – A new report today from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) details what a comprehensive agreement with Iran should look like, how to get there, and what to be weary of when negotiating with the Islamic Republic.

In “What ‘Yes’ With Iran Looks Like,” authors Mark Dubowitz, Reuel Marc Gerecht, and Behnam Ben Taleblu write that before and during any negotiations, the Trump administration must defend the current sanctions architecture so as to build leverage and guard against any premature concessions that are not driven by a change in Iranian behavior.

“The administration must avoid a limited agreement that fails to address adequately both nuclear and non-nuclear threats,” said Dubowitz, chief executive of FDD. “Any diplomacy that attempts to separate the nuclear issue from Tehran’s other actions runs the serious risk of repeating previous diplomatic mistakes.” Sanctions relief in exchange for anything short of a fundamental transformation of Iranian foreign and security policy would only underwrite the regime’s hegemonic aspirations.

The authors write that Iran is cognizant of U.S. domestic politics and has every incentive to run out the clock, using talks until the 2020 election to see if its position would improve under a potentially different administration.

The report offers a series of political and economic markers to assess if the clerical regime is serious about negotiations that could yield a comprehensive agreement. “For Washington to know if an Iranian offer to negotiate is genuine, it will need to look for indicators of macroeconomic contraction and political duress,” Taleblu said. “The absence of those signs would surely mean that the offer is meant to buy time and offset sanctions pressure.”

The authors provide baselines for a “good” comprehensive agreement with Iran, categorizing current threats by their domain, identifying the main driver for each threat, and policy options available to the administration.

The Trump administration should not hesitate to add human rights into discussions with Iran. “Ignoring human rights and the cause of representative government would only vindicate the regime narrative that Washington does not really care about the plight of the Iranian people,” Gerecht said. “The United States should always advance what the clerical regime fears most. The Islamic Republic is not going to change its behavior unless the regime believes it has no other option.”

About FDD

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) is a Washington, DC-based nonpartisan policy institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Visit our website at fdd.org and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube.