October 28, 2016 | Policy Brief

In the Battle for Mosul and Iraq’s Future, U.S. Must Heed the Iranian Threat

October 28, 2016 | Policy Brief

In the Battle for Mosul and Iraq’s Future, U.S. Must Heed the Iranian Threat

With the battle for Mosul underway, and Iraqi, Kurdish, Turkish, American, and Shiite militia forces engaging the Islamic State in the towns surrounding Mosul, the fate of Iraq in a post-ISIS world will come into swift focus. This is not to say that ISIS will cease to exist in Iraq, though it may lose control of the territorial state which it has occupied since 2014 when Iraqi security forces were routed by ISIS militants. The U.S. and others must now plan to both fight an insurgent ISIS amongst the Iraqi population, and also develop a “day-after” plan for governance that mitigates the influence of Iran while re-integrating liberated Sunnis in the Iraqi state. It is nearly impossible to imagine these goals being accomplished absent sustained American engagement.

The fate of a unified Iraq will be determined in no small part by what happens in Mosul after ISIS is evicted. Will Sunni refugees fleeing the fighting be subjected to abuse by Iraqi security forces and Iranian-backed militias? Will they be prevented from returning to their homes or be denied adequate reconstruction assistance? Will Iran’s allies seek to enter the city, assert a role in post-ISIS governance, and inflict widespread retribution against Sunnis accused of being collaborators? If the defeat of ISIS simply gives way to Iranian domination of Iraq’s largest Sunni Arab city, it will almost certainly lay the groundwork for the rise of ISIS 2.0 and the further fracturing of Iraq along sectarian and ethnic lines.

Even if the Iranian-backed Shiite militias do not push their way into the heart of Mosul, they are set to seize territory to the city’s west, including the town of Tal Afar. The militias appear intent on controlling large areas in western Iraq as well as key parts of the border with Syria, helping their Iranian patrons secure a land corridor to the Levant. Iran is clearly grooming its militias in Iraq to take on a role similar to its own revolutionary guards – with outsized political influence in Baghdad and a capability to conduct external military operations that serve Iranian interests (as is already the case in Syria). 

A vigorous American role in Iraq post-Mosul – diplomatically, militarily, and economically – will be essential if there is to be any hope of countering Iran’s malign influence and promoting more inclusive politics. Without it, Iran’s power is sure to grow, dangerously exacerbating the sectarian fault lines that not only are tearing Iraq apart, but are destabilizing the broader region as well – precisely the environment in which ISIS and other jihadist groups thrive.

To avoid that dangerous outcome, Congress and the next administration should start discussions as soon as possible on the U.S. role in Iraq after ISIS is driven out, including the possibility of maintaining a long-term security presence to continue supporting and strengthening the legitimate institutions of the Iraqi state.

Tyler Stapleton is the deputy director of congressional relations for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Issues:

Iran