PLO Rapprochement with Iran?

The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) sent a high-level delegation to Iran this week, and announced the formation of a joint committee to enhance bilateral cooperation. The visit is a thaw after two decades of icy relations stemming from Iran’s rejection of the PLO’s diplomacy with Israel. It also comes amid a battle between the PLO and its rival Hamas for patronage in the wake of the Iran nuclear deal.

Ahmad Majdalani, the leading PLO official on the visit, is the organization’s point man for diplomacy with Iran and its allies. The Syrian-born Majdalani was recently dispatched to Damascus to negotiate with Bashar al-Assad over the plight of Palestinians in the war-torn Yarmouk camp. Majdalani’s visit to Iran is reportedly testing the waters for a future visit from PLO Chairman and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to the Iranian capital.

The surprise PLO visit comes amidst a crisis in Tehran’s relations with the PLO’s rival Hamas. Shortly after the announcement of the Iran nuclear deal last month, Hamas’ political leaders paid a surprise visit to Saudi Arabia. Iran viewed the visit to its regional rival as a snub and cancelled an upcoming planned delegation from Hamas, which until recently enjoyed significant financial support from Iran. This rupture emerged due to disagreements over the Syrian civil war.

Hamas’ loss could be Abbas’ gain. The potential windfall from a newfound sponsor in Iran could be enormous for Abbas. Money is tight in the West Bank: the Palestinian Authority has started talking about austerity measures, while Fatah officials have complained about a financial “crisis.” With Iran set to receive an estimated $100 billion in sanctions relief after the nuclear deal, Abbas may be looking for his cut (whether Iran agrees is another story entirely).

Should Majdalani pave the way for a high-level bilateral visit, it will be Abbas’s first since becoming Palestinian Authority president in 2005. Indeed, Abbas visited Iran as part of the 2012 multilateral summit of the non-aligned movement. However, Abbas would only be welcomed as the head of the PLO or the “State of Palestine,” not the Palestinian Authority, which Iran does not recognize because it is the offspring of the Oslo Accords with Israel. Except for the brief period in 2006 when Hamas won the Palestinian elections, Iran has refused to cooperate with the PA.

The possibility of a PLO détente with Iran is just that for now: a possibility. But it’s clear to see what Abbas could gain. A visit would prompt outrage from both his rivals in Hamas and his bitter foes in Israel, while also potentially securing new resources. More importantly, it would be an attempt to adjust to a changing Middle East dynamic. Abbas knows that after the nuclear deal, Iran’s stock as a regional power will only rise.

Grant Rumley is a research analyst at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @GrantRumley