ISIS is Threatening Hamas in Gaza. That’s Scary News.

ISIS has been signaling its designs on the Palestinian territory of Gaza. “The rule of sharia will be imposed on Gaza,” an ISIS fighter announced in a recent video.

And that means going after Hamas, the violent Islamist group that controls the Palestinian territory. Abu al-Ayna al-Ansari, a spokesman for Palestinian groups that have pledged to ISIS, told the New York Times, “We will stay like a thorn in the throat of Hamas, and a thorn in the throat of Israel.”

ISIS's ultimate ambition appears to be toppling Hamas. That threat is backed up by force: up to 12 attacks targeting Hamas in Gaza this year, according to the Times, have come from militants pledging allegiance to the Islamic State.

This comes at a dangerous time for Gaza. Hamas was battered during the 2014 war with Israel. Having essentially failed as a governing body, they're pretty vulnerable. ISIS, with an affiliate nearby in Egypt, is well positioned to violently challenge Hamas for control of the Gaza strip.

Both “the secular nationalism” of Fatah and “the Islamist nationalism of [Hamas] have run aground,” Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, explains. “So in come the anti-nationalists, who say 'no, no, that's all wrong. It's all about God, Umma, and the caliphate.'”

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That is ISIS's opening: Palestinians, especially the younger generation, are fed up with their current leaders and looking for something new. “If they are good at mobilizing young Gazans,” says Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, “[Islamic State] as a youth movement could have an effect.”

ISIS wouldn't be the first radical jihadi group in Gaza to challenge Hamas, all of which have failed. “The problem for the [jihadis] is Hamas has a strong security apparatus,” Gartenstein-Ross says. Despite Hamas' political problems, they're still quite good at policing and repression. So ISIS faces, per Gartenstein-Ross, “the same barrier as past [jihadi] efforts in Gaza.”

ISIS could also push Hamas into a more militant policy. Right now, Hamas's political leadership isn't really interested in open confrontation with Israel: the last war turned out badly. But its military wing is, in general, more aggressive — and its ideology and public message centers on its “resistance” effort against Israel. An ISIS challenge could force “Hamas to a more hardline position, either to compete or else out of expedience; they want a harder line view, and can use [ISIS]'s emergence as an excuse,” Gartenstein-Ross says.

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