Sanctions Relief and the IRGC

OPEC “needs to open space” for the increased Iranian exports that could soon flow due to sanctions relief, Tehran’s oil minister said Wednesday at the cartel’s Vienna headquarters. He could have simply demanded that the group clear “space” for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is this business empire, including many entities that helped create Iran’s controversial nuclear program that is set to reap one of the greatest windfalls from the sanctions relief a final nuclear deal will provide.

As the driving force in the Islamic Republic’s quest for a nuclear bomb, the IRGC has consistently opposed a negotiated solution to the decade-old crisis over Iran’s nuclear program. In public, IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari toes the government line and praises the nuclear negotiators, but simultaneously, the IRGC’s parliamentary supporters openly accuse Iranian negotiators of treason, organize unauthorized rallies against “capitulation,” and unleash mobs against pro-negotiation speeches in the provinces.

The government of President Hassan Rouhani initially tried to diminish the influence of the IRGC in Iran’s economy, but now even senior advisors to the president openly admit that the government is no match for the Guard’s economic clout. In just the past month, the IRGC’s powerful contracting arm, Khatam al-Anbia, has signed contracts with Kerman province and the Ministry of Health, while beginning large-scale road construction projects in Shiraz. In Tehran, the municipality has granted the IRGC firm $690 million worth of projects on a no-bid basis.

Even if the IRGC’s attempts to undermine the Rouhani government do not ultimately derail Tehran’s nuclear negotiations, the Guard has positioned itself to benefit from the talks’ potential success. Increased revenues that are expected as a result of the nuclear deal will unquestionably flow to the IRGC because of its ubiquitous presence throughout the Iranian economy. This will empower the IRGC the domestic struggle against Rouhani and the technocratic elites which could allow them greater control of influential government offices.

All of this should serve as a warning. International companies looking to invest in the Islamic Republic after a deal is inked may find that rather than investing in a new Iran, they are investing in the very organization that helped finance the nuclear program that the deal purports to dismantle.

Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Find him on Twitter: @Alfoneh