June 5, 2014 | Policy Brief

Iranian Overtures To The Gulf

June 5, 2014 | Policy Brief

Iranian Overtures To The Gulf

Sheikh Sabah al Ahmed al Sabah, Emir of Kuwait, concluded a two day landmark visit to Iran on Monday, the first such visit by a Kuwaiti emir since the Iranian revolution. During the visit, Iran and Kuwait signed six new bilateral agreements strengthening cooperation across many fields, including transportation, security, and tourism. This apparent Kuwaiti-Iranian honeymoon is the latest in a series of Iranian attempts to mend fences with its traditional Sunni Arab rivals across the Gulf. Iranian engagement has been reciprocated by Gulf states fearful of declining American power in the region coupled with an ascendant Iran.

Since the election of Iranian president Hassan Rouhani in June 2013 and the announcement five months later of the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), a framework to negotiate Iran’s nuclear program, Iran has inaugurated an unprecedented campaign of engagement in the Gulf. This regional engagement has included all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Yemen, and has taken the form of treaties, military drills, and high-level diplomatic contact.

Perhaps the crowning achievement of Tehran’s “charm offensive” in the Gulf is its apparent rapprochement with its main regional rival and traditional enemy, Saudi Arabia. In a major departure from previous Saudi statements accusing Iran of spreading “sedition” in the region, last month Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal invited his Iranian counterpart to visit Riyadh and spoke of Iran’s role in regional security. Moreover, that a regional leader like Saudi Arabia is changing its tune on Iran is indicative of a broader sense in the Gulf that Washington is turning its back on its GCC allies.  

Iran is undoubtedly leveraging its emergence from diplomatic isolation thanks to the ongoing negotiations with the P5+1. The Sunni states, however, may be responding to Iran’s overtures out of fear rather than optimism. These countries have historically relied on the United States for security guarantees against Iranian encroachment. Currently, they are less than convinced of Washington’s resolve.

At the moment, Washington is more concerned with welcoming Iran back into the international community than challenging Iran’s support for international terrorism or meddling in the affairs of its neighbors, prompting the Gulf countries to seek other security assurances – including from Iran. They are hedging their bets due to fears that, should the nuclear negotiations fail, the U.S. may ultimately allow Iran to get the bomb and emerge as the new principal regional player while America continues its “strategic withdrawal” from the region.

Oren Adaki is a Research Associate at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

Issues:

Iran Iran Sanctions