Political Divisions and the Fate of Iran’s Nuclear Concessions

The Western media is hailing Tehran’s suspension of uranium enrichment in return for “limited, targeted and reversible sanctions relief for a six-months period” as a diplomatic victory. A survey of the Iranian press however, demonstrates that the agreement, implemented yesterday, is deeply controversial in Iran. It is now at the center of the factional power struggle in the Islamic Republic.

Supporters of the Rouhani government predictably praise the Geneva agreement as a diplomatic victory. Donya-ye Eqtesad hails the sanctions relief as a “Great Opening” in Iran’s foreign relations. Etemad triumphantly declares the “Death of Sanctions,” and Aftab-e Yazd’s analysts assure the readers that the international atmosphere has changed “to Iran’s favor.”

Government critics, however, are just as clear in their condemnation of the agreement. Monday’s edition of Sobh-e Sadeq, an official mouthpiece of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), accused Iranian nuclear negotiators of “hiding” the details of the agreement from the Iranian public. Vatan-e Emrouz, an unofficial mouthpiece of the IRGC, on Monday mourned “suspension of Iran’s nuclear activities,” calling the setback a “nuclear Holocaust.” The front page of Tuesday’s edition lamented, “the centrifuges are no longer spinning.” The hardline Siyasat-e Rouz bizarrely accused Rouhani’s government of trading Iran’s nuclear program with “bonbons,” while Kayhan slammed the agreement as “unbalanced.”

As Iran becomes increasingly polarized, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is performing a difficult balancing act. He needs the Rouhani government to secure sanctions relief and stabilize the economy, but he can’t afford to lose the IRGC’s support, which traditionally guarantees the survival of the regime.

In his official response to Rouhani’s report on the Geneva agreement, Khamenei praised the negotiators, but expressed hope that “resistance in the face of excessive demands,” should guide their future progress. Khamenei on January 9 assured his public that the agreement was not an indication that Iran was capitulating, but one outlet cited his discontent with stipulations concerning Iran’s yielding the right to enrichment of uranium, and another claiming that he call for a new composition of the Iranian negotiation team.

Khamenei’s balancing act will be important to monitor. Given Khamenei’s role as arbiter between the power centers, it serves as an important reminder of just how easily the Islamic Republic’s nuclear concessions could be reversed. 

Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.