August 13, 2013 | Policy Brief

Challenges Await Mali’s Next President

August 13, 2013 | Policy Brief

Challenges Await Mali’s Next President

While results are being tallied in Mali’s run-off elections, a ‘strong man’ appears poised to win the presidential elections. In the first round, former Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (I.B.K.) won 39 percent of the vote, nearly 20 percentage points ahead of his closest opponent, Samuel Cissé. Final results are expected Friday, but it appears likely that Keita will win

Running under the banner “for the honor of Mali,” I.B.K. played to Malian voters who were humiliated by the country’s need to invite France to keep their country in one piece. Remembering how I.B.K. ended student protests in the mid-1990s that paralyzed Malian schools for weeks, voters cited I.B.K.’s tough reputation as part of his appeal.

It is understandable that Malians would look for strength in their next leader.  The country has suffered immensely in recent years. In the wake of a Tuareg rebellion, a coup in March 2012 decapitated the nation’s democratically elected government. What ensued was a perfect storm. The government in Bamako collapsed, while Islamist fighters cut the country in two as they took control over much of the north.

Seeking to prevent al-Qaeda groups from overtaking Mali, the French intervened, putting boots on the ground in January 2013. The French, with Malian forces, have tentatively regained control.

With the situation stabilized, the international community, dangling crucial financial aid, pressured Mali into holding elections.  Experts and analysts questioned the wisdom of holding elections so quickly. Nevertheless, a record 49 percent of Malian voters turned out across the country in the first round.  Reports indicate that, during both rounds of voting, polling went relatively smoothly and without violence.

Yet elections were just one hurdle toward long term stability. The Malian government will only survive if it can come to a pragmatic solution to its ongoing issues with its Tuareg population.

The country is in desperate need of a mediator who can move beyond the negotiating table and deliver on the agreements. Mali’s next leader must also be a skilled diplomat who can work with the international community to ensure continued support and aid.

Mali’s new leadership, with the continued assistance of the international community, will need to be more inclusive of Mali’s Tuaregs while keeping the Islamists marginalized without sparking new conflict.

Laura Grossman is senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.