Mali’s Elections Will Not Solve Its Problems

By Zachary Elkaim

Mali is set to hold presidential elections on Sunday, July 28. While the democratic process should be welcomed, it has been beset with challenges, and more are expected after a winner is determined. 

This election will be Mali’s first since the country descended into chaos following the March 2012 coup, and the ensuing insurrection in the north by Tuaregs and Islamists. While many of the issues that led to the instability in the first place have not been resolved, the transitional government is determined to stage an election as soon as possible. The reason: France wants to leave Mali as soon as possible. Aid to Mali, primarily from the United States, is also frozen until a democratic transition occurs.

Mali historically has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the world, with presidential elections never exceeding 40%. This election will likely yield less than that because it will take place during both Ramadan and the Malian rainy season. The average Malian’s primary concern will be fasting and planting crops, making a dismal turnout likely.

Mali is also expected to encounter voter registration problems. As the Associated Press reports, Mali’s voter database includes “no 18-year-olds, a lapse representing between 100,000 and 300,000 potential voters” and “226 villages of 1,000 people or more, where just a single voter is enrolled.” Additionally, widespread voter fraud has been reported involving over 1.9 million voter ID numbers. Meanwhile, no provisions have been made for the votes of the 500,000 Malians still displaced due to last year’s conflict.

With 27 candidates vying for the presidency, the vote will almost certainly go to a runoff in August. After that, with the peace agreement with the Tuaregs only valid until the election, the newly inaugurated president will have a mere 60 days to negotiate a comprehensive peace and autonomy agreement with the Tuaregs in the north, who are currently only placated by an interim pact. These negotiations will draw the new president’s attention away from other crucial issues, including fighting jihadi remnants, tending to the needs of refugees, and strengthening a fractured military.

Thus, whatever the outcome of the elections, security in Mali will continue to be a problem, and national cohesion will be elusive.

Zachary Elkaim is a researcher at Foundation for Defense of Democracies