July 17, 2013 | Policy Brief

Egypt and the African Union

July 17, 2013 | Policy Brief

Egypt and the African Union

By Zachary Elkaim

Following the ouster of Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi earlier this month, the African Union declared that the “overthrow of the democratically elected President… falls under the definition of an unconstitutional change of Government.” Therefore, and in accordance with AU rules, the multilateral body elected to “suspend the participation of Egypt in the AU's activities until the restoration of constitutional order.”

For an organization whose predecessor, the Organization of African Unity, was once dubbed “The Dictators Club,” Egypt’s ejection appears rather extreme. Moreover, the AU needs Egypt; it is one of the Union’s largest financial contributors. That’s why the AU’s move should be viewed for what it is: temporary and cosmetic.

From Egypt’s perspective, a speedy resolution and reintegration to the AU is also critical. Ethiopia has begun a project to dam the Nile River, producing vast amounts of hydroelectricity for itself, while at the same time reducing the downstream flow to Egypt of water by 20 percent. This conflict is likely to pit Ethiopia — along with other upstream states Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi — against Egypt and Sudan. The AU is a vital forum to solve this problem before it leads to hostilities.

The legal justification for the reinstatement of Egypt is a relatively simple one.  Indeed, the AU’s demand for “restoration of constitutional order” is a matter of interpretation. It does not mean the resolution of the current crisis. It simply means a return to stability. For example, Mali was suspended from the AU in March last year, and reinstated the following October after the creation of an interim government.

In other words, reintegration will take place as soon as very basic parameters have been satisfied. Egypt, even amidst its current political upheaval, will soon return to the organization and resume what it sees as its rightful place as a dominant voice on African affairs.

Zachary Elkaim is a researcher at Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Issues:

Egypt