Osama Targets Europe

The latest message of Osama bin Laden is strangely trying to convince the Europeans — six years later — that they were wrong to follow the United States into Afghanistan. As al Qaeda's war room has showed in the past, they often project trends. In February 2003, bin Laden called on the jihadis to head to Iraq, “for Baghdad, the second capital of the Caliphate would be falling into the hands of the infidels” way before the U.S. Marines brought down the Saddam Hussein statue in April. In this tape, he is asking the Europeans to leave the battlefield of Afghanistan now, as events are expanding further on their continent. The hidden message in his speech is by far greater than the words aired on al Jazeera.

The message says the Soviet occupation has failed, and so will Americans and Europeans in Afghanistan. He “reminded them” of the tremendous mistake they made by assisting U.S. troops in dislodging the Taliban in 2001. “I am responsible for the attacks of 9/11,” said bin Laden, thus “he” was the man behind the massacre of Manhattan, not the Taliban. He added — the classic refrain — that “it was in response to aggression in Palestine and Lebanon.” U.S. spokesmen rushed to “explain” that the Afghans are “happier now because they are better administered.”

I disagree with this PR logic. Nations wouldn't be happier with foreign forces just because richer governments can distribute goodies. Washington must be clear on the principles, seven or 70 years after: The regime was removed because it was responsible for the massacres of al Qaeda in New York and Washington. The Taliban had the opportunity to dismantle the group but didn't. The Greater Middle East must hear solid counterarguments coming out of America and the free world, not “explanations” about the coalition's governance in Afghanistan. For after democratic elections in that country, it is up to Kabul to respond to al Qaeda's allegations.

Bin Laden forgot that the Taliban “blessed” the attacks and continued to do so in their media and that he boasted that his closer comrade Abul Ghais ignored it. Indeed, the war against America has been declared since 1998, even though the preparation for the terror “operations” weren't shared with all levels among Taliban and al Qaeda. Yes, these are simple counterarguments but they need to be made. For future recruits will be fed with bin Laden's rhetoric about the innocence of his Taliban brothers, and hence, we may find these arguments uttered by suicide terrorists blasting against targets in European cities.

“This is in response to your illegitimate and unjust attacks against Afghanistan,” would scream the Shaheed in their prepared videotape before they spread mayhem. A strong response to these false arguments, delivered in Arabic via satellite channels, should have been the appropriate response. What is important is not how we satisfy our perception of good image, but how we affect the perception of those who are about to be recruited on the other side.

Bin Laden is preparing the psychological terrain for an escalation on European soil. In Madrid, his cells struck the trains while claiming it was because of the “unjust presence” of Spanish troops in Iraq. It is very possible that future strikes in Europe would be accompanied with claims related to the European military presence in Afghanistan.

The forthcoming attacks are being prepared now with al Qaeda propaganda mentioning former and current British Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. What links all these leaders in the mind of bin Laden? It is not only the past; rather it is the future. The supreme commander knows global jihad has begun in that continent. Salafists have already waged violence in Europe and the so-called youth gangs in France's suburbs — manipulated by the radical clerics — are at war with the French state. Al Qaeda wants to claim it, own it and boast about it. That's what is on bin Laden's mind.

He claims that what is to come in Europe is “because” of its alliance with the United States and its military presence in Afghanistan, an “occupied Muslim land.” In reality, the dice have already been rolled: The jihadists are already on the attack but the al Qaeda master wants to father it and widen it.

Walid Phares is director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.